Re: Seeking Arrow Test
That's just probability.
The chance of suffering an affliction relates to the amount of damage the unit suffered. Thus the units most likely to be afflicted from a first arrow will have the fewest remaining HP, and thus stand the least chance of surviving a second arrow, and if they do survive the second arrow, will have taken such little damage there is a very low chance of taking an affliction from it.
If you'll pardon me for extreme geekiness, but...
The optimal chance of seeing two afflictions from one 10HP target will be when it takes 4 or 5 damage from the first arrow. Let's say 5 HP damage: 50% will be afflicted. The second arrow needs to do 1-4 damage to get a second affliction (any more damage kills), which will occur in (estimated) around 10-15% of cases. These 1-4 damage hits then have 10-40% of inflicting another affliction (leaning towards the 40%). Without going through exactly and taking an overestimate, 50% x 15% x 40% is 3%.
Now factor in how many take 5 damage from the first arrow, you're probably looking at something like 0.2-0.3% of the total trial n value having two afflictions. Expand to include everyone who took damage off and survived two arrows (i.e. the same principles for 1-8HP from the first arrow), the chance of two afflictions is probably <1%. Then also consider how many of your n=300 per trial will not have been hit by 2 arrows anyway: the majority either not hit or hit by just one (killed or otherwise).
Consequently, dual afflicted scouts should be expected to be incredibly rare in this experiment.
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