Someone cast Wolven Winter on New Orleans!

[Illuminated One]

About 15 years ago we often used to have snow so high that I could sink in completely in the hinterland (ok, I was a kid back then but I was not that small ). Every winter people went ice skating on frozen lakes. Now for several winters we got maybe 30cm snow at max and going onto the ice is madness (except of course if you don't mind walking home in slowly freezing clothes ). So here the climate has definitely changed.
I won't say that this is due to GW or that we will all die because of GW but I wouldn't dismiss it easily.
The main problem is imo that it has been blown up to giant proportions by the media and activists.

Originally Posted by MaxWilson

By the way, it looks like Monckton was incorrect about sublimation being the primary mechanism, at least according to Molg. Molg concludes that air temperatures are unimportant, and that direct solar radiation is the driver behind the recession. (I.e. it is "melting" after all. At least I think that's what he's saying.)

Hmm, this should probably support the sun-is-getting-hotter-theory?
I can see two problems with that (I haven't fully read through the article though):

First is that measuring the air temperature at a glacier probably doesn't mean too much. When there's ice involved there will be a thermodynamic equilibrium even if there's warm material pumped into the system.
When you have a drink with ice cubes in it and pour in more warm drink the temperature will be the same as before after some minutes only the ice cubes are getting less. I don't know if the glacier situation is exceptional for some reason though.

Second point is that it's quite a jump from it's not the air to it's direct sun radiation.
What about radiation reflected by the atmosphere (which according to global warming should be getting higher)?

Yeah, you could even rise a third point - what about humidity levels? Would be also a relevant factor and the article seems to say they have changed.

[MaxWilson]

Originally Posted by Illuminated One

About 15 years ago we often used to have snow so high that I could sink in completely in the hinterland (ok, I was a kid back then but I was not that small ). Every winter people went ice skating on frozen lakes. Now for several winters we got maybe 30cm snow at max and going onto the ice is madness (except of course if you don't mind walking home in slowly freezing clothes ). So here the climate has definitely changed.

Moreover, the Hudson used to freeze so solid that Washington counted on being able to drag his cannons across on the ice. Not any more. The climate has changed. And before that, it used to be much hotter during the Medieval Warm Period than it is today, so much so that there were dairy farms in Greenland. (IIRC, Iceland just brought in its first barley crop in centuries sometime this past year.) Yes, climate changes. Which direction is it changing in now, since the year 2000? (The evidence that it's still getting hotter is weak, although the evidence that it's starting to cool is even weaker.)

Your other questions and observations (air temperature, etc.) are good too. Thank you. I wish everyone had your attitude.

-Max

P.S. I actually don't necessarily think the study in question supports the sun-is-getting-hotter theory so much as it supports the local-effects-usually-have-local-causes theory.

[JimMorrison]

The average temperature of the world is gradually, and consistently increasing.

Greenhouse effect (Co2) can perhaps not be 100% conclusively linked to this phenomenon, however observations of nearby planets and their atmospheres, plus empirical laboratory testing shows that this -could- contribute to atmospheric warming.

Ultimately, the real point is not whether or not humanity is directly causing the climactic trend. The point is that it is happening, and that if it continues to happen, things are going to get a lot harder for everyone.

So you have to ask yourself, are we helping to solve the problem? Just not causing something through deliberate personal action, doesn't absolve you from the repercussions of the situation.

Living with your head in the sand isn't going to do anyone any good. And just remember, there is a significant chance that sand will be underwater within the decade, and we wouldn't want anyone to drown out of total ignorance, would we?

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by JimMorrison

The average temperature of the world is gradually, and consistently increasing.

No its not Jim. Data has scatter - with up years and down years.
This year, the temperature will be down.

[thejeff]

No one claims snow in New Orleans is evidence of global warming. I said it's possible (maybe even likely) it's due to global warming, but that's far different than being evidence of.

Again, no single unusual weather event is evidence, there have always been unusual weather events. A statistic increase in both the number and severity of such events is predicted and would be evidence. Do you see the difference?

[licker]

How pointless.

If temperatures go up it's global warming.

If they go down?

Yep, still global warming...

Though the entire point of the exercise is to link rising temperatures to CO2 anyway, but not the converse...

How odd that we listen to non scientists like Al Gore to explain systems as complicated as the global climate, yet ignore any findings which show alternative causes to rising temperatures.

Well the dogma has been bought already, no reason to ask for a refund I guess.

[Tifone]

Look, I'll try to explain it in a non-difficult way

Global warming = temperatures go up.
Temperatures go up = ice caps melt in the poles (expecially the north pole, this summer for the first time both the northwest and the northeast passages opened)
Ice caps melt = lots of cold, fresh water go in the oceans
Cold fresh water in the oceans = it disturbs the hot currents which mainly from the tropical/equatorial gulfs go warming the coasts around the world
Hot currents disturbed = Heat goes down around and it is increased the chance of typhoons floodings hurricanes etc. due to pressure jolts

The thing is obviously much more complicated. Still it's not that difficult to understand that global warming can make the temperatures go both ways.

And btw nobody just "listens to non scientists like Al Gore", (he made a great documentary while not scientifically perfect, and has the merit of having brought "sixpackjoe"'s attention to the problem); still ppl even listen to commissions of top-climatologists and scientists of other branches (including Nobel prizes) which say the problem exists, it's serious and even the Kyoto protocol wouldn't be enough to stop the huge and dangerous climate changes of the next centuries. - http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conten.../306/5702/1686

Our sons will pay for our greed.

[licker]

Except that this past winter the arctic had its largest ice coverage in something like 30 or more years (I can look for the citation). But so what?

Oh don't get me wrong, I'm all for better controls on pollution, including CO2 emissions, but not for the ridiculous notions Al Gore lied to everyone about.

His documentary wasn't just imperfect science, it was pure bollocks designed to scare based on lies.

I think you should take another look at how cold water from the poles would affect the gulf of mexico as well, you seem to be implying that the melt from this summer was both greater than normal, and managed to reach the gulf in some 5 months or so.

Also the past two hurricane seasons have been much lighter than what the alarmists were predicting after one anomalous season 3 years back.

It's not simple, this much is true though.

[thejeff]

Originally Posted by licker

Except that this past winter the arctic had its largest ice coverage in something like 30 or more years (I can look for the citation). But so what?

Yes, it did. Also the thinnest. Ice volume was still very low.
I haven't seen anything on what the summer ice coverage looked like?
How much of that melted away?

[Tifone]

It was the Antartic ice. Yeah last winter - just a bit above the average, nothing to go excited about.
This winter instead, among the lower ones ever registered - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosph...area.south.jpg

Al Gore lied? Not so much. Nine errors, nothing really "wrong" but exaggerations on the full synergy of some of the causes/effects and a bit too catastrophic predictions compared to the actual datas in our hands. - http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/a...ilm/article.do

But we can just say "omg he LIED!!!1!onehundredeleven!!!" and go though it!