Re: A potential scenario
I got this from a Ukrainian, I think it was translated, could not find a source link.
“Defeat of Russian troops on the Seversky Donets near Belogorovka. Details and losses
This morning (May 13), the Russian 74th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade retreated from a bridgehead on the southern bank of the Seversky Donets near Belogorovka.
On May 10, the Russian Armed Forces set up a pontoon crossing and began transferring equipment and infantry to the southern bank. A breakthrough would have led to the encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Lysychansk.
Twenty tanks and just over a battalion of infantry with BMPs and APCs managed to cross the river. At that moment, Ukrainian artillery launched a massive barrage of fire. The crossing was destroyed along with all the equipment that was on it at the time of the shelling.
Troops on the bridgehead attempted to move deeper into the Ukrainian forces positions, but were pushed back to the river.
Between May 10 and 12, units of the 74th Brigade attempted three times to build new crossings at the same location, but all attempts failed. During the three days, Ukrainian forces artillery destroyed all the pontoons and up to 50 pieces of equipment available to the brigade and its engineer units. Attempts to provide reinforcements or a way for the crossed troops to retreat were abandoned.
The battalion, entrenched on the bridgehead, had been under heavy fire for three days. When it became clear that it would not be possible to retreat with the equipment, the remaining officers gave the order to swim across to the northern bank. They abandoned the four tanks and several BMPs that had miraculously survived (the rest were destroyed by shelling) and any wounded who could not move about on their own.
According to a Russian staff officer, the exact losses are still unknown, but he estimates that the 74th lost up to 400 people killed or missing and up to 800 wounded (on both banks of the Seversky Donets).
The army operational report said that all engineering equipment was destroyed, the pontoon laying machine was sunk, the losses were 80 dead and up to 200 wounded.
It should be taken into account that reports usually contain underreporting, and not for propaganda reasons, but due to the lack of complete information.
According to an Ukrainian officer in that area, the total losses of Russian troops amounted to over 50 engineer and armored vehicles on the northern bank of the river and over 20 armored vehicles on the southern bank.
The manpower losses were estimated at up to 700 killed and about 1,200 wounded. On the south bank Ukrainian forces captured all the wounded left behind, according to the information we have from the Ukrainian military - 231 soldiers and officers. Most of them are wounded, including seriously.```
Russian officers cannot give exact numbers because the casualties have not yet had time to be counted.
The failure to break through to the southern bank of the Seversky Donets complicates the task of storming Lysychansk and gives the Ukrainian forces the opportunity to delay the start of the assault for another week or two.
At the same time, Russian forces began blowing up bridges over the Seversky Donets in controlled territories toward Kharkiv in the morning and afternoon of May 13. The purpose of these bombings was to secure themselves against a counterattack by the Ukrainian forces from the direction of Kharkiv and to build a defensive line on the bank of the river.
The defeat at Belogorovka was the heaviest in April and May on land. The 74th Brigade is effectively deprived of combat effectiveness, and the engineering forces will not be able to provide pontoon crossings for the next week until new equipment is brought in.”
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