I do not think you can say who is winning yet. I entered in Jomon's war third and that made my part easier. Also my troops are quite well suited against Jomon tactics however the final battle has not been fought yet.
The provinces statistics don't show everything. I am paying my bless and awake pretender with the awfull scales now and my income is not specially great because of sloth and turmoil. I am good at research but Ulm, Midgard and Marignon too. So I do not think that , as we say here, the fish is already sold

. There are still many big contenders, for example if you loose fast against Midgard or Marignon they will be a super powers with GOOD scales

. So, lets see, we are still at turn 38.