Luck : +1 => Turn 2 => lab destroyed event !!!

[zakna]

had the same thing happen to me, turn 2 lab destroyed it was with -2 luck scales. then the next turn got brigand with 30 % unrest on capitol about 750 gold down the drain in 2 turns unlucky scales are really dangerous

[Olive]

I already lost my lab in turn 2 with turmoil 3 - luck 3.

And I can't help to repeat that for my first mp game with dom 3, with order 2 or 3 and misf 1, I lost about half of my capitol's population on turn 2 because of a plague.

[Velusion]

Edi said:
If you lost the lab on turn 2, it's your own damned fault for not recruiting a mage.

This statement doesn't make any sense. How could recruiting a mage help prevent his lab from burning down?

On another note: While recruiting a mage is often an important first step for many nations, there are a few where expanding quickly is more important. In these cases limiting your early expansion because you are betting on your lab burning down in turn 2 with +1 luck scales is probably a bad idea.

[Edi]

Velusion said:

This statement doesn't make any sense. How could recruiting a mage help prevent his lab from burning down?

On another note: While recruiting a mage is often an important first step for many nations, there are a few where expanding quickly is more important. In these cases limiting your early expansion because you are betting on your lab burning down in turn 2 with +1 luck scales is probably a bad idea.

If you have a not recruited a mage and your lab burns down with your god asleep or imprisoned, you are completely unable to build a lab until you have amassed enough gems to empower a commander to become a mage. Barring gem income from events or a mage mercenary, that's a minimum of 10 turns (more in late era and automatically more for nations with multitype gem income) without research or additional mages. So if you get shafted in MP by your lab burning down on turn 2 and have no mage, you will have no way of recovering that gap and will consequently die and nobody else will be to blame.

[thejeff]

Yeah, we get that it's really bad when it happens.

But it should also be really unlikely, especially with positive luck scales. So in some cases if you can expand faster by not building mages, it's worth the risk.

And hardly a major blunder worthy of the "what a stupid thing to do" attitude.

More interesting the question originally asked: What are the chances? Does anyone have even a rough estimate? I suppose you could run a few hundred first turns to see. If it's one in 10 games, worth planning for. One in a hundred probably not a major concern.


Also worthy of note that some nations have mages recruitable without a lab: Vaetti hags, Magisters and Judges, anyone with only random paths.

[Ygorl]

It is really unlikely. It's just (obviously) not impossible. Taking luck+1 doesn't mean bad things never happen to you...
I played a game with luck 0 in which I lost half my population the first turn, and a third of it the next turn; I basically started the game with a heavy-unrest 10000-population capital. Kind of stank, but bad things happen to good people sometimes.

[Kristoffer O]

> I played a game with luck 0 in which I lost half my population the first turn, and a third of it the next turn

That was harsh. I suppose you had a death scale. Plagues are a lot more common with a death scale, especially with death 3.

Some events are restricted and will not happen the first couple of turns. Mainly barbarian hordes and stuff that makes you loose your only province. I think the destroyed temple waits for some turns as well, but I'm not sure. Best way not to have these kinds of events are to have positive scales all over, and Order 3 to get few events.