Ukraine 2021(?)

[MarkSheppard]

Originally Posted by Crueldwarf

For whatever reason I do not have victory locations displayed or placed in this scenario.

I knew I was forgetting something.

[Crueldwarf]

Funnily enough I had entirely opposite experience with Ukrainian ATGM teams when I started scenario as Ukrainians. They launched like a dozen Javelins in op-fires during Russian first turn and hit only three times. Killing two BMP-3s and lightly damaging another.

[DRG]

Originally Posted by Crueldwarf

Funnily enough I had entirely opposite experience with Ukrainian ATGM teams when I started scenario as Ukrainians. They launched like a dozen Javelins in op-fires during Russian first turn and hit only three times. Killing two BMP-3s and lightly damaging another.

That could be the result of movement or suppression before opfire...... OR......the games random number generator playing "GOTCHA" with you.

Build a simple sceanrio. You have one tank, the AI gets 1 ATG or ATGM depending on the year

Deploy the AT gun / ATGM team so that it has clear LOF to a roadway say about 6-8 hexes away from it with an ATG and maybe a bit further with the ATGM team.

Place the tank on the road just out of LOS of the AT gun

Save the scenario

Start the scenario...... move your tank down that road.

In a test I ran a few times, each time generated a different result

• one was a miss
• one was a kill, nobody got out
• One tripped the Smoke dischargers
• one was a kill, everybody got out
• one was a miss on the first shot and a kill on the second and only 3 crew bailed
• one was hit with one * damage
• The last time I ran it I took a different path. The ATG fired and hit no effect, then the tank and the ATG got into an exchange of shots that ended that turn with no effect on either. At the start of the next turn it was more exchange of shots but the tank eventually scored a kill.............c'est le guerre

It would be very, very rare to replay a turn and have the same thing happen over and over. That was the way the game was designed from the start and we have reinforced that behaviour so two people doing the same thing getting different results is normal.

[MarkSheppard]

I think a scenario like this shows WHY the Russians went with the BMP-3's armament.

It seems all so crazy -- 100mm low pressure gun AND a 30mm autocannon for an IFV.

But then you realize a T-90 only really has about 22 rounds ready; and if you're assaulting a dug in infantry position like in this scenario; those 22 rounds of 125mm run out fast, especially if you're reserving ammunition for anti-tank work.

By contrast, the BMP-3 has about 40 rounds of 100mm and 500 rounds of 30mm; meaning that the BMP-3 can "escort" the T-90, with the T-90s going ahead to take the hits the BMP-3 can't, while the BMP-3 peppers the enemy positions with 100mm HE-FRAG (it doesn't have to be super accurate, just enough to keep their heads down and inflict some casualties).

Oh, and you also need to fire at the enemy, even if you only have a 5% or 7% chance of a hit in-game.

[shahadi]

I've recently recalled the conflict in Georgia in 2008. I now believe that Gerogia initiated the hostilities thinking NATO would back her militarily; due in large part to the Bucharest Declaration issued by NATO in 2008.

Here is part 23 of that declaration:

"We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO."

However, Ukraine has not made the Georgian mistake, although NATO is committed to add Ukraine to NATO.

Ukraine's geography is most important as well as the flow of natural gas through Ukraine. I think Russia intends to bleed Ukraine's economy; while pressuring the Ukrainian elites to accept what amounts to an oligarchical goverance along the lines in Russia; where industries, products, and services are allocated among the elites. I do not think Russia wants to invade Ukraine.

The US headed by Cruz and many other senators are threatening to replace the Nordstream II pipeline with US shipped natural gas. The US may have recheted up the tensions between Ukraine and Russia since 2014. In other words why now?

Could the case be that Putin is reacting to US threats to slash Nordstream II?

Ukraine has deployed the bulk of her fighting force, nearly 120,000 troops to Eastern Ukraine; and it should be noted that with the close
proximity of large formations a spark causing hostilities could smolder on winds from the East or West of Luhansk and Donetsk.

[DRG]

Personally, I do not think there will be an invasion. This IMHO is the west looking for a way to distract people from the Pandemic and Putin is happy to stir the pot. This "build-up" is all about Ukraine possibly joining NATO which is about as popular in Russia as it would have been in the US 50 years ago if Mexico talked about joining Warsaw pact. Even the Ukrainian President says all this speculation is not helping.

To put that into perspective, if Ukraine joined NATO that would put the eastern border of a NATO nation less than 250 km from what was Stalingrad.

Think about that.

EDIT......... WELL, I GUESS I WAS WRONG ABOUT THE INVASION.......

[zovs66]

I agree with DRG, this is just another smoke and mirrors game run by a clown who stole an election (not the real laughing stock hiding in the office). While I can a test to the reality of Covid, its not a natural flu like sickness at all, its a man made bio-weapon created by the Chinese from the pocket books of the likes of Gates and his frontman Fauci. If you think otherwise, go ask some folks in Australia or Canada how much their governments really care about their people. Those two countries alone have the closest thing to the Nazi jackboots on the ground in their Polizei force.

[Mr_Bill_5000]

Actually there IS a scenario (I wrote it).

Reference :

https://forum.shrapnelgames.com/show...&postcount=120

It's called "Battle in East Ukraine" and is winnable by either side (although clearly the Ukrainians have a harder time of it).

Let me know what you think,

Mr. Bill

[shahadi]

It is has been reported Russian assault ships are on station in the Black Sea; however, I did not observe a flight deck on the Kaliningrad amphibious assault ship. That leads me to believe the naval infantry does not have organic air assault capability as contrasted with an American USMC MEU. And, it reveals that naval infantry units conducts assualts amphibiously; without rotary or fixed-wing aircraft to transport, provide air strike or logistical support.

Therefore, I would find interesting to know the real capabilities of the naval infantry given she does not have dedicated air assets for transport, air support, and logistics. Furthermore, Russia has only I aircraft carrier, meaning time on station per air sortie maybe drastically reduced from air operations conducted from an amphibious assault ship; certainly, rotary operations maybe restricted outright.

If my assessments are accurate, Russian air support would have to be based at the airfield in Crimea; too far for rotary support, and at a distance to severely restrict ordinance loads of strike aircraft. In my thinking the port of Odessa is the big prize to squeeze Ukraine economically while restricting her military logistical support.

I say the siezing of the port of Odessa is within the core doctrine of naval infantry (or should be). The Russians must rely on coordinating support for naval infantry from the air force and possibly the army if my assessments are accurate.

But, as I have said in an earlier post, I do not subscribe to a Russian invasion. IMHO, The political solution has the Minks Agreements of 2014 as a foundation.

Now that I've mentioned the USMC, where's Suhiir?

[DRG]

Originally Posted by shahadi

Now that I've mentioned the USMC, where's Suhiir?

She last posted 26th May 2021. She does has not replied to emails I have sent though they are not bounced

Given everything that has gone on since 26th May 2021 and that she had pre-existing health issues it doesn't look good