Seeking Arrow Test (Updated 1st June 2009 to V1.1 with Death Bless tests)

[Calahan]

For those interested, here are the results of some tests I ran regarding what items or effects help protect against the 'Seeking Arrow' spell.

The test involved sending seven lots of 10 x 'Seeking Arrow' spells against seven lots of 10 Indy Scouts, where the Scouts were equipped with nothing for the control (bare), shields (Small + Tower), Lucky Pendant, Robe of Missile Protection. I also tested for the increased chance of afflictions from a Death Bless, testing D6 (200%) and D10 (400% and Death Weapons). The Death Bless tests were carried out against bare Scouts.

This test was repeated 30 times, giving the following results.

(I would like to show the complete result table here, but there doesn't appear to be any simple, and more importantly, visually pleasing way to show a table on the forum. So I will instead direct you to the zip file attached, which includes the test game I used, and the full results table [MSExcel File])

The end results show that out of 300 'Seeking Arrows' cast at....

300 Bare Scouts --- 151 died, 45 received afflictions.
300 Scouts equipped with a Small Shield (Parry 4) --- 150 died, 39 received afflictions.
300 Scouts equipped with a Tower Shield (Parry 8) --- 145 died, 57 received afflictions.
300 Scouts equipped with a Lucky Pendant --- 67 died, 25 received afflictions.
300 Scouts equipped with Robe of Missile Protection --- 14 died, 9 received afflictions.
300 Bare Scouts, caster had 200% affliction chance --- 137 died, 39 received afflictions.
300 Bare Scouts, caster had 400% affliction chance and death weapons --- 140 died, 43 received afflictions

All the Scouts were set to 'Defend'.
*** Note *** Units with 'Hide' or 'Sneak' orders can not be targetted with 'Seeking Arrow'.

Preliminary Conclusions.
- Out of those tested, only the 'Luck' or 'Air Shield' effect provided any protection against the 'Seeking Arrow' spell.
- A shield makes no difference.
- The Death Bless does not cause any extra afflictions.

When I get chance I will run further tests on the following.
- Etherealness
- Flaming Weapons from a Fire Bless.
- Regeneration (does it help avoid afflictions?)
- Cursed
- Twist Fate

Please feel free to comment, and if anyone knows of any other effects or variables they think might help for or against the success of 'Seeking Arrow', then please post in the thread and I'll add it to the list for the next test run.

Thank You for Reading.

---------------------------------

Updated 1st June 2009 to V.1.1

I have now tested the Death Bless more thoroughly with the 'Seeking Arrow' spell, and I can only conclude that it has no effect on the spell with regards having an increased chance of causing afflictions.

For the test I used Bane Lords, and 'Seeking Arrow' casters wearing a shroud which bestowed the Death Bless upon them. I tested the D4 bless, and the D10 bless.

For one of the test runs I also sent the shroud wearers into battle the turn before casting the 'Seeking Arrow' spell, as I heard there was the possibility that the effects of the bless gained from the shroud does not 'stick' unless the unit has been in an actual battle while wearing it.

I also tested the range of damage that was inflicted in order to try and establish the actual damage roll that takes place during the spell.

Results.

'Seeking Arrow' damage mechanics.

Over the course of 400 tests, the average damage observed was 8.2, which corresponds nicely to the indicated damage of the spell, which is 8. The range of damage was between 0 - 24. This seems to indicate that there is a bonus roll added to the damage from the spell, but also an equal resistance roll to reduce/negate the damage.

It has been suggested that the 'Seeking Arrow' spell does 8 + DRN ( - DRN) points of damage. I am now pretty convinced that this is true. Although I was not able to determine if re-rolls for 6's are unlimited or not.


The Death Bless

After 100 tests in each category, the following number of afflictions were observed

No Death Bless - 18
D4 Bless - 19
D10 Bless - 21
D10 Bless (afterbattle) - 16

In the final 100 tests, the shroud wearers were engaged in a battle the turn before they cast the 'Seeking Arrow' spells. All this was done to ensure as well as possible that there was no problem with the bless effects from the shroud in 'sticking' to the unit.

The affliction mechanics from the manual states that the chance of an affliction occurring is the % HP lost in the attack multiplied by any extra affliction chance, such as the one caused by the Death Bless.

A Bane Lord has 42 HP, and a D4 bless increases the affliction chance by 100%. Now if my understanding of the mechanics are correct, in theory if the Bane Lord is hit for 21 HP (50% chance of an affliction occurring) or more from a D4 blessed unit, there should be a 100% chance of an affliction occurring (50% increased by 100% is 100%). During the D4 test, there was one incidence of 21 HP of damage occurring, but no affliction was seen.

A D10 bless has a 400% chance of causing an affliction, so in theory if a Bane Lord is hit for 9 HP (approx >20% chance of an affliction occurring) or more from a D10 blessed unit, there should be a 100% chance of an affliction occurring. Here is the maths I'm basing this on in case anyone thinks 20% increased by 400% is only 80%.

20% increased by 100% is 40% - D4 bless
20% increased by 200% is 60% - D6 bless
20% increased by 300% is 80% - D8 bless
20% increased by 400% is 100% - D10 bless

So >20% increased by 400% is >100%. During both the D10 tests, there was 63 occurrences of 9 or more HP of damage occurring, but no affliction seen.

Conclusions.

-The damage roll/mechanic for the 'Seeking Arrow' spell is 8 + DRN ( - DRN) *** Note the defender roll is minus all the damage, and not just the extra damage. As it is possible for the defender to negate all the damage with a high enough roll.***

- The Death Bless has no effect when it comes to causing afflictions with the 'Seeking Arrow' spell.

I still have to run tests on other possible defences like etherealness, twist fate, regen etc. But I think I have tested all I can for the Death Bless, and have not once witnessed it having even the slightest effect with regards causing afflictions. (unless someone can suggest another way to test it).

The games used for these tests can be downloaded below.

'Thank You' to anyone who reads this and anyone who offers feedback.

(Note, will tidy this post up next chance I get.)