Finding enemy searched magic sites.

[MaxWilson]

I've seen some controversy over whether failing a site discontinues generating other sites, but it doesn't matter for our purposes. As long as site occurrence is rolled before actually generating the site type site, frequencies for different paths are not independent. Finding a death site affects the chance of there being air sites in a province, because there are on average only x sites and air sites and death sites are mutually exclusive. This would not be the case if the % were rolled separately for each path:

1. Roll % of there being an air site. If you fail, discontinue.
2. Roll % of there being an air site. If you fail, discontinue.
3. Roll % of there being an air site. If you fail, discontinue.
4. Roll % of there being an air site. If you fail, discontinue.

1. Roll % of there being an fire site. If you fail, discontinue.
2. Roll % of there being an fire site. If you fail, discontinue.
3. Roll % of there being an fire site. If you fail, discontinue.
4. Roll % of there being an fire site. If you fail, discontinue.

etc. In that case there would be very few provinces with only 1 site (because at least one path should come up positive) and very few provinces with 8+ sites (when all paths come up positive), and finding an air site would not make it any less likely that there are death sites. But if site type is determined after occurrence, then skipping provinces with 2+ sites is a pretty reasonable thing to do because few provinces will have more than that anyway. Or, if you don't skip them, at least do them last.

-Max

[vfb]

It's not reasonable to stop searching.

You know that there are 2 sites. The first 2 checks passed. The chance of another site existing is the same as the chance of at least one site existing in an unsearched province.

[MaxWilson]

[thinks] Oh, I see. You're right, if Dominions uses Jazzepi's discontinue-on-fail algorithm P(3 sites | 2 sites) = site freq, and maybe you shouldn't skip them. However, I don't believe that it does discontinue on fail because (w/ site freq 45) I don't see anything close to 55% of provinces having zero sites. The distribution of sites I actually see looks more like a binomial, which makes skipping 2-site provinces reasonable after all.

Binomial probability calculator
P(1+ sites) = 91%
P(2+ sites) = 61%
P(3+ sites) = 24%
P(at least 3 sites | at least 2 sites) = 24/61 = 40%

Assuming that all sites are equally likely in a given terrain, that gives a 91/8 = 11% chance of finding a site in a "fresh" province with a site-searching spell, and a 40/8 = 5% chance of finding a site in a province that already has 2 sites.

-Max

Edit: no, that's wrong. There's more than an 91/8 = 11% chance of finding a site with a spell, since there could be more than one site there. But I'm too lazy to do the math at the moment, and I've made my point.

[vfb]

Oh.

Yeah, you're right, at "Special Site Frequency=45", there are way too many sites for '45' to be a percentage chance for a site to appear, with failure preventing further site generation.

Whatever the formula is, I'd still prefer not to have site searching stop when 2 sites are found, simply because even at '45', there are way too many sites that would not be found.

In one EA game I'm in, default settings, I have 56 provinces. I've searched all paths except holy, and didn't search Air in a few provinces.

Here's the breakdown:

Provinces with 1 site: 9
Provinces with 2 sites: 11
Provinces with 3 sites: 19
Provinces with 4 sites: 17

(Skewed by maybe 1 Caspar and one Alchemy Factory thingy I think.)

[jutetrea]

I just want an option that I can force them to follow the list, I want to see every site searched for every path I have available. I don't care if it already has 2 sites or not.

Those rare sites that you might find 1 or 2 of in a game can completely change the game. On the other hand, if you DON'T find any of those sites, you just wasted a ton of gems and mage time. I still think its worth it though.

I'd also rather have the list be proximity based to capital rather than suddenly railroading my search pattern over to newly conquered enemy territory, but that's minor.

[Jazzepi]

I have a question. Has anyone noticed auto-casting Voice of Tiamat searching provinces you don't control?

Jazzepi

[MaxWilson]

jutetrea said:
I'd also rather have the list be proximity based to capital rather than suddenly railroading my search pattern over to newly conquered enemy territory, but that's minor.

Since discovering that manually-cast spells use the auto-search algorithm, I've been using monthly casts a lot less. It's so much easier to take all the mages in my capital (in paths in which I'm strong), and say, "You 50 guys. Search my empire this turn, skipping any provinces that are already searched." I.e. select them all and have them all cast e.g. Dark Knowledge one after another, accepting the default province choice. (Pre-3.08 this was a pain because IIRC you had to manually look up which provinces had already been searched and/or had someone searching them currently.) That makes things like distance from capital less of an issue, because the whole empire gets searched including provinces close to the capital.

-Max

[Saulot]

Something that hasn't been mentioned in this thread that is important to consider, is that X isn't actually the site chance. It's always X + Y, where Y is the terrain modifier. Which can be significant in those mountain/swamp/waste/magic provinces.

[Kristoffer O]

I think they are like this:
Special magic place +25
Waste +20
Cave, Mountain, Swamp, Forest +10
Farm -10
Deep sea +10 (perhaps +15)

I've made slight alterings to this the other day. Cave will get 15 and a littel less income. And gets a new variety of sites with earth being ore common.

---

Sites are generated in this order (IIRC):
1) Is there a site? Terrain and default site chance effects chance.
2) Random site.
3) If rare, reroll site.
4) If uneligible due to terrain or unique that is already in use reroll. There are more eligible death sites in wastes, thus a death site is more common in a waste. There is still a good number of each magic path eligible to each terrain type, so it is possible to find nature sites in waste lands.

Generally nature sites are more common in forests and swamps. Death sites and fire sites in wastelands. Earth in mountains. Air in mountains and plains. Water in swamps and less common in wastelands. This might not be statistically true. It is just a guess from me depending on how I think I have sorted sites. 'Forest of delights' for example will only appear in forests. 'Bile march' only in swamps. You get the picture.

[Stryke11]

I have a tangental question:

If I have searched a territory with a mage who has one level in a path, will later auto-search spells ignore that province? It *seems* that way from my playtesting. As a result, I refrain from searching with roving mages and instead wait for the spells, as they seem more efficient. I'd hate to have a level two or three site near my capital unfound because I searched it back in the day with a level one mage, and now autosearch will not target that province.