Dead pretender poll

[Humer]

I say let the attacker win ties. If player deems that the mage has enough skill in astral and is willing to risk the die (d6) roll then let her have the edge, however small. That 'small' edge might seem bigger for all you number crunchers, but the dice never do as expected, right?

And IMO the number cruching really has no meaning since the sample group of Magic Duels remains small in any game.

- Humer

edit: It's Magic Duel, not Mind! Bad spelling! Bad!

[ October 07, 2003, 05:32: Message edited by: Humer ]

[Nerfix]

I have a new contribution to this "heated" conversation!

What if nobody wins ties?

[Pocus]

Originally posted by Jasper:
If defenders win ties, then casting Magic Duel would be spending time to risk a mage in order to maybe a _cheaper_ mage. You'd want to know you had at least +2 and probably +3 more Astral than your target before considering Mage Duel.[/QB]

the problem I see is that you have already very big chances to win a duel even with an edge of +2, and with the tie for you. And +2 is so simple to have when you are Arco or Pythium versus (Marignon, Ctis, Jotun) that they will practically win more than 90% of the duels they initiate. The supremacy IMO is then so great that in a war between an astral 3/4 nation versus an astral 1/2, you are preventing the weaker astral to field any of their mages, thus crippling them enormously before even starting the fight.

I dont have the figures, but I would like to know what is the probability to win a duel, as the defender, when you are at -2 and when you loose tie. Thats must be pretty low.

Would you risk your grand masters at 270 gp apiece, or Witch Hunter (less costly, but even more loosy in an astral duel), knowing that you are facing Arco or Pythium? I dont think so. A single mystic with skull cap and medaillion (to counter the ones Marignon would field) would fries them all.

[Nagot Gick Fel]

Originally posted by Pocus:
I dont have the figures, but I would like to know what is the probability to win a duel, as the defender, when you are at -2 and when you loose tie. Thats must be pretty low.

1/6 (17%) if the higher skilled mage initiates the duel, and 10/36 (28%) otherwise. But If the defender has 2 mages who take the risk to magic duel a single mage who's +2 in astral skill, the odds climb to 48%. With 3 mages, that's 61%. So even with winning ties, the risk for the attacker is real.

Would you risk your grand masters at 270 gp apiece, or Witch Hunter (less costly, but even more loosy in an astral duel), knowing that you are facing Arco or Pythium? I dont think so. A single mystic with skull cap and medaillion (to counter the ones Marignon would field) would fries them all.

The greatest threat comes from TPers/gaters, because you can't see them coming. But when that happens the defender has the benefit of the first shot. Look at the numbers above - 2 Witch Hunters cost only 300 gp, and have 48% chance to fry an Arch-Theurg which costs way more if they duel first. Things are not as desperate as you think.

[Pocus]

Originally posted by Nagot Gick Fel:

quote:

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Originally posted by Pocus:
I dont have the figures, but I would like to know what is the probability to win a duel, as the defender, when you are at -2 and when you loose tie. Thats must be pretty low.

1/6 (17%) if the higher skilled mage initiates the duel, and 10/36 (28%) otherwise. But If the defender has 2 mages who take the risk to magic duel a single mage who's +2 in astral skill, the odds climb to 48%. With 3 mages, that's 61%. So even with winning ties, the risk for the attacker is real.

Would you risk your grand masters at 270 gp apiece, or Witch Hunter (less costly, but even more loosy in an astral duel), knowing that you are facing Arco or Pythium? I dont think so. A single mystic with skull cap and medaillion (to counter the ones Marignon would field) would fries them all.

The greatest threat comes from TPers/gaters, because you can't see them coming. But when that happens the defender has the benefit of the first shot. Look at the numbers above - 2 Witch Hunters cost only 300 gp, and have 48% chance to fry an Arch-Theurg which costs way more if they duel first. Things are not as desperate as you think.

---

ok, I fired XL.

You have indeed 17% chance of winning a duel, if you are at -2 and loosing tie.

Your percentages pertaining to examples where the lower astral nation initiate a duel are exacts, but I dont think many people will have the guts to engage witch hunters in a counter battery of duel against Arco (WH cost nearly the same btw)

I prefer to point out that a single mystic, unenhanced has 69% of killing 2 WH in a row, and 57% to kill three.
Costly enough to warrant that the defender earn the tie IMO.

[Pocus]

Originally posted by Nagot Gick Fel:

quote:

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Originally posted by Pocus:
I prefer to point out that a single mystic, unenhanced has 69% of killing 2 WH in a row, and 57% to kill three.
Costly enough to warrant that the defender earn the tie IMO.

Costly enough because you're only considering the worst case: cheapest astral-3 initiating duel vs most expensive astral-1. Now do the same math with an Arch Theurg vs 4 or 5 Star Childs (assuming these fire first), and do a mean before giving figures.

---

True in theory, false most of the time in practice, because of the thunder rod effect you have with magic duel, the same one you get when you Vengeance of the Dead somebody :

The highest astral level will be targeted. I wonder if somebody can really send 3/4 archtheurg in a gating party against a weak astral nation, without having at least one enhanced with starshine skull cap and/or astral medallion.

Where as I would not dare pretend that somebody is rich enough to give +1 astral items on astral 1 mages which are more or less in a province to counter a 'possible' gateway.

So in essence the situation you speak of is seldomly, if never encountered, in my humble opinion ( a mere +2 supremacy between an attacking party of a strong astral nation, versus a defensive and/or garrisoning party of a weak astral nation).

Well you can argue that it can happen. Sure. It can also happen to gate 75 summer lions with only one leader, loose the leader by a stray arrow, and have all your lions dissolve*. But I think you speak of situations which have a reasonable chance of happening between players somehow experimented.

* : happened to me in my first pbem, so the example is demonstrative of a newbie attitude

so when you spoke of doing a mean, I concur. But do a ponderated mean, with the associated probabilities that the events appear.

[ October 07, 2003, 13:39: Message edited by: Pocus ]

[Pocus]

No Johan, the dogmatic discussions of the newsgroup are not yet in Shrapnel forum. What can lead you to think that

[johan osterman]

Originally posted by Pocus:
No Johan, the dogmatic discussions of the newsgroup are not yet in Shrapnel forum. What can lead you to think that

As long as there is still discussion on a subject I do not think we should worry about dogmatism.

[Psitticine]

A tweak suggestion that occured to me: possibly if Magic Duel cost a gem to cast (consider it a "focusing cost"), that might even things. Then, not only would the attacker be risking death but there'd be a limit to his/her/its "ammo" supply over time, and resources that could be used for other spells, including other offensive choices, would be consumed.

FWIW, I haven't been running into Magic Duel much, but I realize a lot of people script their mages and that would "force" (ugh, what a biased-sounded word, but I can't think of a better one right now) Magic Duel into the mix if they wish to use it. The spell-chooser AI, however, doesn't seem to select it very often. Mind Burn is the big winner there.

Possibly it is because of the risk factor, but I think the fact there are many spells available that can be sent at Groups of enemies instead of single opponents is more likely the root of that decision. It probably also makes a difference that there are totally safe spells (i.e. Mind Burn) that can be pinpointed onto specific targets.

If you add the cost of a gem to the mix, and the AI will now only use gems if it feels it is really necessary, then that would make computer-guided mages (be they enemy or friendly) all the less likely to cast the spell.

Eh, just my 2¢ there.

I also feel like adding, after my reread, that I've been staying out of this one because I just haven't run into Magic Duel very much. (There's no point in me shooting my mouth off on a topic I just don't know all that much about; I'll save that for the ones I'm more familiar with. )

I love Astral Magic, and while some of the new spells are very expensive both to research and to cast, they are really, really potent! This, however, would lead to the enemy not wanting to challenge my empowered front-line mages (they need the boost to cast the high-power spells I love) and my Pretender will always have an Astral of 9+ if I go Astral with him/her/it because of the specific blessing effect it gives. I, myself, haven't tried the spell in question more than once or twice by scripting. It just seems like less of a gamble to send a nice Stellar Fires spell raining down on the poor shmucks, but that's just me; experience with the spell (and I do intend to experiment) may well change my feelings on the matter.

[Nagot Gick Fel]

Originally posted by Pocus:

The highest astral level will be targeted. I wonder if somebody can really send 3/4 archtheurg in a gating party against a weak astral nation, without having at least one enhanced with starshine skull cap and/or astral medallion.

Steve Andrewartha's "Dark Ages of Grana" game - I was Marignon (a "weak astral nation"), and my Pythium enemy gave up on equipping his AT when he realized they were outmatched in astral power by my Virtue ;-). Yet he still gated parties of 3 AT to support his Atlantian ally - he lost many, but keeping the war in my domain paid for them in the end.

I had the same problem in my own "Bloodfest" game as R'lyeh, dealing with an Abysian player (another "weak astral nation") who apparently had enhanced Warlocks everywhere (astral boosters + crystal matrices + an apparently unending supply of Conjurors - 1 blood/1 death cheap mages he used to cast Sabbath Slave). I still don't know if communion boosts astral level wrt magic duel, but he thought so and was confident, and since I was the invader, he had the luxury to shoot first and fry my best Starspawns' brains (this was before the magic duel bug fix). I kept on sending naked Starspawns in Groups of 5+ to keep him on the defensive.

Where as I would not dare pretend that somebody is rich enough to give +1 astral items on astral 1 mages which are more or less in a province to counter a 'possible' gateway.

I now do this routinely when I have 5 or more - and I need only a single item for the whole pack.

So in essence the situation you speak of is seldomly, if never encountered, in my humble opinion ( a mere +2 supremacy between an attacking party of a strong astral nation, versus a defensive and/or garrisoning party of a weak astral nation).

You're right, it's rare, but I think the main reason behind this is the magic duel mechanics wasn't completely understood until recently - prior to that everyone thought you had to be insane to equip weak astral mages with any item of importance.

so when you spoke of doing a mean, I concur. But do a ponderated mean, with the associated probabilities that the events appear.

Then let's not forget to add the "cost" of casting the spell itself - after all, an Arch Theurg could summon air elementals instead ;-)