Ukraine 2021(?)

[wulfir]

Originally Posted by DRG

Also, the Netherlands seems to be donating 400 PZF-3 launchers as of now (Germany has allowed them to pass through, a change of stance)

There's a tweet out from the German Bundeskanzler that Germany will transfer 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stingers from German stocks. I'm guessing the AT-weapons are hand held...

[DRG]

Andy had already mentioned the Stingers to me but I had not put them in yet. Thanks for the reminder. Until we know different I will assume the AT weapons are of the same type the Netherland donated

According to Wiki ( which is a better source than it used to be......

Lithuania and Latvia have transferred unknown quantities of Stinger missiles from their inventory to Ukraine after receiving an approval from the U.S. state department. The Netherlands will supply the Ukraine with 200 Stinger missiles. Germany will supply 500 Stingers.

.......wonder if that's what brought down the Il-76's

Depending on how long this lasts ( not long probably but hey.... I thought this wasn't going to happen...) this will turn into a weapons testing ground

[DRG]

If anyone finds any info on which version of the Pz3 the Germans sent let us know. The Multi Charge version is a significant upgrade over the base version

[Pibwl]

Originally Posted by DRG

Andy had already mentioned the Stingers to me but I had not put them in yet. Thanks for the reminder.

Add Polish Piorun MANPADS of course. Poland also gave 60 mm mortars, but it's not much improvement to OOB.

(Edit: some sources say Grom MANPADS. There is no clear confirmation so far. Piorun is a development of Grom, also known as Grom-M)

[blazejos]

Ghost_of_Kyiv

Helicopters during first battle of Hostomel airport and some aircrafts also Il-76 in 26 of Feb were lost thanks to Ukrainians Mig-29. There is now an urban legend created during Kyiv sige that this is an one Pilot who alredy shot down 6 aircrafts and many helicopters.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_of_Kyiv

[Oche]

Kevlar-E IFV prototype rushed to fight.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...sOpCs8cZDtIqQQ

[DRG]

[DRG]

[MarkSheppard]

Originally Posted by DRG

If you would like those maps included in the next update forward them to me by mid March

May I kindly suggest that a 15~ day delay be put onto this year's update?

The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly, and there are signs you might have to do another flag update this year (besides Afghanistan).

Belarus may be undergoing a slow motion revolution.

Background in a series of tweets:

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https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/st...Sg687GfjA&s=19

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (@Tsihanouskaya)
Lukashenka committed treason – he made our country a participant in the invasion of Ukraine. So I declared myself as the national leader of Belarus to protect the sovereignty & independence of our country, represent it in security negotiations & crisis management in the region.

Basically, Tsikhanouskaya is the only person who challenged Luka in the 2020 elections and she was forced into exile in Eastern Europe (Poland/Balt States) as a result.

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https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1497649869909118976

Belsat (quoting multiple sources): Belarusian troops expect to be deployed to fight in Ukraine in a few days.

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https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...gTHYaH6Lg&s=19

Lukashenko confirms missile strikes have been launched from Belarus against Ukraine because "Kyiv deployed 3-4 missile divisions near our border".

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What's happening today is a vote on the 2022 Belarusian Constitutional Referendum (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_B...nal_referendum)

that

Basically gives Lukashenko Immunity for acts he commits/committed as president of Belarus

Changes Article 18 of the Belarusian constitution that says "the Republic of Belarus aims at making its territory a nuclear-free zone", enabling Russia to deploy its nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory.

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https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

Belarusians chanting "No to war" outside one of polling stations in Minsk right now. Via @MotolkoHelp

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https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

Given the level of repression, the only possible for Belarusians to gather in protest against the invasion was to turn out to vote in the referendum at the same time all across the country – today at 2PM local time. It seems to have worked! Videos coming from all over the country

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https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

Lukashenka's flag was removed from the #Belarusian embassy in #Vilnius and replaced with the national white-pass-white flag and the #Ukrainian flag. It is reported that the national flag was also noticed at the Belarusian embassy in #Paris.

=====================

We may be seeing a slow motion coup/revolution inside Belarus, provoked by Lukashenko's actions.

Right now, I think it all depends on what Luka does in the next 24 hours.

The previous SRBM and airstrikes he had the Belarussian Air Force launch against Ukraine can be walked back, with some difficulty, but committing ground forces to Ukraine kind of can't.

[DRG]

Originally Posted by MarkSheppard

May I kindly suggest that a 15~ day delay be put onto this year's update?.

Mid March is the aim point for submissions like scenarios NOT when we will release the update. We are WELL AWARE that the situation is fluid ( Gee.. Ya think ? ) and there may need to be serious adjustments. Andy and I exchanged at least 2 dozen emails yesterday

That said this is reported to be a wrecked Russian MT-LBM and it isn't exactly what you would call a top tier combat vehicle

( unless someone thought this was going to be a.......“We have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down.”...... exercise)