Petition to change LUCK\ORDER Scales

[Sammual]

I would like to see the Disasters toned down a bit for every level of Luck you have.

Sammual

Originally posted by Pocus:
how many provinces did you control for the tests? I think you should own at least 10 so to get the max number of possibles events coming. This can change the whole thing if you get 150 events in 75 turns compared to one a turn roughly (but 20% will be bad anyway - which is too much)

I was playing hotseat, only Ulm vs Pythium (to avoid heat/cold effects). I opened only the Ulm turns, so Pythium was totally passive. No spells, no fake disasters...
The test was based on 10 provinces indeed (turn 1 = capital, turn 2 = 4 provinces, turn 3 = 8 provinces, turn 4 = 10 provinces). I've *never* seen more than 2 events/t. BTW.
Dominion was 10 candles to maximize its influence.
By "disaster" I mean big pop loss, no knights, no revolt, not event hailstorms.
To be perfect (I realized too late) I should have made a scenario to remove all magic sites. It is not impossible that one of the test was distorted by a Doom Cloud or something like that...
Could someone confirm/invalidate my tests ?

Cheers

Originally posted by Saber Cherry:
If you are up for more tests, I'd suggest Order 0 & Luck +3, and Order 0 & Luck -3, to see if the base event frequency changes. I'd do it but I'm lazy.

Did it:
Order 0 and Luck +3 = 43 events / 80 turns, 9 bad (1 flood) and 34 good events (1500 gold event among others).
Order +3 and Luck 0 = 8 events / 80 turns, 3 bad (still 1 flood !) and 5 good (1 hero even with luck 0).
Any thought ?

The #'s are within the formula's we were given; which is nice to know. It is just the fact of the good events weighing in less than the bad events.

I don't mind 20% Loss of Population event if on the good side I could get a 10% increase.

Did one Last test, as suggested :
Order O and Luck -3 = 39 events / 82 turns, 28 bad events (6 disasters) and still 11 good events.

[Truper]

Hmmm. Order 0 and luck +3. Nearly 4 times as many good events as bad, 1 disaster and one joyous windfall...

Seems viable to me. The 21% less gold on a turn to turn basis will be somewhat painful, but I'd guess largely compensated by the good events. Perhaps there's hope for me in that MP game after all...

[Treebeard]

One of the best things of the luck scale is the chance of getting mines. If you start in a mountain or get some mountain terrain quick, chances are good you'll start to discover new mines pretty quick. In one game I found three in my home province in 20 turns.

[Saber Cherry]

Originally posted by Sunray_be:
Order 0 and Luck +3 = 43 events / 80 turns, 9 bad (1 flood) and 34 good events (1500 gold event among others).
Order +3 and Luck 0 = 8 events / 80 turns, 3 bad (still 1 flood !) and 5 good (1 hero even with luck 0).
Any thought ?

Yes. Order does NOT reduce event frequency by 10% per level, assuming this test is representative. More like 25% per level, which makes it even more valuable than previously thought. I think I'll always go with +3 order now. Thanks for all your effort!

-Cherry

P.S. In 0%-5% magic site games, luck is very valuable, as the main source of non-national gems. But otherwise...

[Pocus]

Awesome work Sunray, we can draw some probabilities from what you have done.

To sum up :
- Order 0 & Luck 0 = 36 events in 82 turns. 20 good events (I've been lucky) but 5 disasters.
- Order-3 & Luck +3 = 88 events in 82 turns. 61 good events (including the 1500 gold, for a total of 3245 gp bonuses). But still 7 big disasters!
- Order+3 & Luck-3 = 6 events in 123 turns. Only minor effects.

Did it:
Order 0 and Luck +3 = 43 events / 80 turns, 9 bad (1 flood) and 34 good events (1500 gold event among others).
Order +3 and Luck 0 = 8 events / 80 turns, 3 bad (still 1 flood !) and 5 good (1 hero even with luck 0).
Any thought ?

Order O and Luck -3 = 39 events / 82 turns, 28 bad events (6 disasters) and still 11 good events.

what we knows from IW : probability of good event at luck 0 : 50%. Adjustment from luck : +-10%

what we deduce from your tests :

probability of drawing an event (max 2) at order 0 : 50%
probability of drawing an event at order 3 : 10%

=> I would say that order modify event probability by +- 13% - 15%

Taking your figures, and computing the theorical numbers now that would give:

order 0 : 36 events / 82 turns
theorically would give 41 events, not far.

order -3 : 88 events events / 82 turns
theorically would give 82 events, not far.

order 3 : 6 events / 123 turns
theorically would give 6 events, perfect fit!
etc.

Common Race designs :

In order we believe :
with Order 3 Luck -3 you have 5% chance of getting an event, with 80% of it being bad.

Lady Luck:
With Order -3 Luck +3, you have one event a turn in average, with 80% of being good.

On the safe side:
With Order 0 Luck +1, you have 50% of having an event, with 60% chances of it being good. (People generally takes that for national heroes too).

[Treebeard]

I think order/turmoil change the probability of events too much. Perhaps having it match luck scale (i.e. 10% per level) would level order 3/unluck 3 and turmoil 3/luck 3.