What happens in 2025? / new tactics- new technologies

[DRG]

It's difficult to outrun a drone in the open

https://youtu.be/voshtfn9PRM

[MarkSheppard]

Excerpts from a Twitter thread on the life of a "mobile" drone operator

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...97077518151973

A DAY AT THE FRONT - The 28th mechanized

We spent a day with the 28th mechanized brigade, operating in eastern Ukraine. In this thread we give an honest insight of what we saw and what the current situation is at the front.

A story with
@guillaume_ptak
and
@PDocumentarians

...

We woke up at 3:30am and met the press-officer of the 28th Mechanized Brigade in Kramatorsk. We had to move under the cover of darkness so as to avoid being targeted by the Russian FPV drones now plaguing Ukrainian defenders on the frontline....

...

According to the officer, FPV drones are responsible for the vast majority of casualties now sustained by Ukrainian soldiers in eastern Ukraine. After meeting the drone operators, we jumped in the back of their flat-bed truck and set out towards the cold and snowy frontline....

...


After finally getting the drone to work, they flew it out towards the frontline but quickly lost its signal. The onset of winter has proven an obstacle for drones operators, as batteries discharge faster in the cold and the humidity interferes with the signal....


....

Andrii apologized to us, and explained that their work for the day was over. However, they would have to stay at the position until evening, making their way back under the cover of darkness. Artillery shells kept landing in the distance, on Russian positions....

Seems drones on both sides have forced everyone to a semi-nocturnal lifestyle -- i.e. personnel & equipment resupply has to operate under conditions of darkness or very bad weather, lest ubiquitous FPS drones strike.

...

Returning to Lasers:

https://twitter.com/AirPowerNEW1/sta...87727758627172

While power levels are not the only consideration, early DOD evaluations with first and second gen. solid state HEL's has led to the following:

🔸5-15kW: Group 1 & 2 [UAV] defeat
🔸20kW: G 1, 2 & 3 [UAV] defeat
🔸50-60kW: G 1,2 & 3 [UAVs] + RAM [Rockets & Mortars] & some CM [Cruise Missiles]
🔸100-300kW: Long-Range Rockets & Cruise Missiles

Back to drones...

We finally know what "Baba Yaga" is -- the mysterious Ukrainian Drone that Russians have been calling that.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/statu...98616020283439

Essentially, the AFU have been using a large, heavy drone as a "mothership" -- most Drones only have a range of 5 to 8 km, limited by both batteries and line of sight propagation of radio for control signals.

The Baba Yaga drone acts as a mothership, carrying smaller drones deep into the battlefield, before releasing them and then acting as a mobile radio relay at an altitude of 1000m for the released drones. This lets AFU strike 20 to 30 km into the rear with drones that normally could only strike 5 to 8 km.

[MarkSheppard]

I'm basically turning this thread into a dumping place for "new tactics, new technologies"; rather than a raw OOB thread, because there's a lot of changes going on now.

Konrad Muzyka visited Southern Ukraine with Kofman, [Rob] Lee, and Gady -- it was detailed in this paywalled article:

https://rochanconsulting.substack.co...or-impressions

But some people cut and pasted it. The things of most interest to this thread:

The war is also very drone-centric. There could be 20 drones flying near the frontline along the 10 km wide front. Neither side has the ability to achieve a tactical surprise unless an attack is launched in drone adverse weather (rain with very heavy winds); Readiness to respond to ground attacks is very high. We saw Russian troops (a platoon) walking towards the frontline. Once they were detected, they were engaged by mortars within 30 seconds and by artillery cluster munitions after an additional four minutes. Both sides have capabilities to ISR opposing forces' tactical depths;

(emphasis mine).

The "detect to destroy" cycle is very short now.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by MarkSheppard

The Baba Yaga drone acts as a mothership, carrying smaller drones deep into the battlefield, before releasing them and then acting as a mobile radio relay at an altitude of 1000m for the released drones. This lets AFU strike 20 to 30 km into the rear with drones that normally could only strike 5 to 8 km.

Sounds like "No Mans Land" has been extended exponentially, making the front to big for conventional weapons, making Weapons of Mass Destruction a viable choice again. Sounds deadly, for both soldiers and civilians alike. It's like WWI all over again, but with high technology. Looks like SPWWIII is becoming more viable all the time. I don't know how practical a new title would be though. I say just extend the game beyond 2025, a simple solution for a complicated situation, at least until we figure out a better way to do it.

[MarkSheppard]

GPS guided bombs from standoff distances are playing a larger part:



Russians are starting to serially produce helicopter UAS:

https://twitter.com/Karmabash/status...96852709884036

https://t.me/mertviorku/3813

Serial production of new unmanned Termit helicopters was shown in the Russian Federation - Defense Express

They can carry three laser-guided missiles and fire at a distance of up to six kilometers. The drone itself reaches a speed of 150 km/h and can stay in the air for up to six hours.

It is noted that drones were being developed even before the invasion of Ukraine, and at least three of them are at a high level of readiness.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/statu...61730954608865

Russia's PPSh Lab is starting to mass-produce its "Triton" counter-FPV system that can be mounted on tanks, vehicles and stationary targets; the backpack version is for assault ground troops - presumably that backpack can suppress FPV drone signals as well.

Ukraine is now placing UGVs into service

https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1698599349859578357

the ground drone "Karakurt" has appeared in the service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , the "Engineering Corps" association, which is engaged in the development of equipment for our military.

The drone is good at overcoming trenches and earthen embankments. It was named after the most poisonous spider found in Ukraine - the karakurt. This ground drone was developed on the basis of a gyroboard. It can be made in 2 days with a team of 3-4 people. Now there are dozens of them on the front lines.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/...98508582990192

Russian sources write that the Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine, in addition to kamikaze aerial drones, are beginning to use remote-controlled ground drones. Mobile drones are maneuverable and silent. According to Russian soldiers, these drones have a heat sensor, as soon as they get close, the drone detonates

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/statu...94103283859909

New weapon used by Ukraine per Russian report

A ground drone loaded with explosive to clear Russian trenches ahead of an assault

This one, unfortunately, did not work out as intended

[DRG]

https://sundries.ua/en/ukrainian-arm...he-first-time/

[MarkSheppard]

More UGVs:

Footage of the Ukranian minelaying UGVs in the front:

https://twitter.com/clashreport/stat...07371711410391
Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicles are being at the front for laying anti-tank mines.

The AFU has deployed to combat the "Ironclad" UGV, which is armed with the Remote weapon station SHABLYA + thermal sight

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1745848837732745631
https://twitter.com/infussambas/stat...26258867679650

It seems that AFU is now deploying fixed site versions of the Shablya RWS:

https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/la...use-by-ukraine

Three of the armed and thermal/video image-equipped RWS, built by Lviv robotics manufacturer Roboneers, have been approved for use by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to a Ministry of Defence (MOD) statement published late last year.

...

The Ukrainian MOD has approved the ShaBlya remote weapon station for use in conducting reconnaissance, identifying targets on the battlefield, for checkpoint and border defence as well as offensively engaging infantry, lightly armoured combat vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and suppressing opposing firing positions.

The rotating tripod turret system can reportedly be armed with a 7.62mm, M240 or M2 machine gun, automatic grenade launcher and other weapons to engage targets up to 1,200 metres away. It has also previously been shown using a Steamdeck console as its controller and aiming maintained on a video monitor from a distance of 100 metres via direct cable.

Or basically...

[Suhiir]

Originally Posted by DRG

https://sundries.ua/en/ukrainian-arm...he-first-time/

Originally Posted by MarkSheppard

The AFU has deployed to combat the "Ironclad" UGV, which is armed with the Remote weapon station SHABLYA + thermal sight
https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1745848837732745631
https://twitter.com/infussambas/stat...26258867679650

I expect to see a LOT of these, or something similar, in future conflicts.

[MarkSheppard]

This will only increase as the world faces a manpower crunch due to collapsing birthrates.

You'll see this with the increasing penetration of UGVs to do tasks traditionally seen as manpower intensive or very dangerous:

Minelaying
Mineclearing
Scouting
Manning fixed defensive lines

IOW; with a TFR of less than 2.1 in many countries; you can't just scout using the traditional method of "drive down that road until something happens or you get blown up" (aka advance to contact).

Not enough manpower anymore to be like that. So robots will be the ones advancing to contact.

[Dion]

I know a lot of robots that would be really good at that, especially the ones who call you and can talk. Not only the robots, but also the people that run them too, people who think they are protected by the constitutional right of free speech to program robots to trick the gullible to answer questions that make people feel foolish for answering, then asking the person for money based on how they answer the question. What a disgrace.