winMBT low percentile hits

[Marek_Tucan]

Your plan should be robust enough so that few lucky hits don't upset it and at the same time flexible enough to change direction when losses are too high. Unfortunately, as all of us, you have to lose big time before winning big time

[narwan]

Marek_Tucan said:
Unfortunately, as all of us, you have to lose big time before winning big time

I never lost big time!

@rfisher:
If you want to know the important lesson here it is that a plan that can be thwarted by a single or even two or three lucky hits by the enemy (or bad luck misses from your troops) in a short time is a bad plan. You need some redundancy in your approach. Lucky hits and misses WILL happen and should happen.

[hoplitis]

Ok guys! Give the man some breathing space here!
Yes reloading is a standard way to improve your knowledge, tactics and gaming style. One word of advise though. There are some great scenarios & campaigns in the game. Don't "waste" them in the "learning phase". They're so much fun to play when you have "settled" on your game style and play them """honestly""". What I'm saying is if you think you need more "training" don't do it with the scenarios that appeal to you. Manage your future enjoyment!!!

[Marek_Tucan]

Good training is also PBEM against someone experienced (if you don't mind you'd get destroyed in the process) But as he'll be mercilessly killing your units, you will see how he prepares his luck.

[Wdll]

True, just be careful to not kick his ***, during a whole battle or against a unit or two of his or he might start thinking you cheat.

[hoplitis]

The only "compassionate" PBEM opponent would be your mother, provided she had some recent victories so her motherely instincts can resurface.

[rfisher]

Hmmm, I'd better be clear: I only cheat against the computer!
I've never played a PBEM game let alone cheated in one, honest! (Can you do the reloading cheat thing in PBEM games?)

Anyway, I'd like to flog this one to death for those of you not yet bored of my dumb comments, as the extremes of the lucky shots still trouble me. By extremes, I mean the shots that hit with a 1% chance, as well as the shots that miss with a 99% chance.
This appears to be a deliberate decision that there are no absolutes, and it is fair enough, but I feel that even a 1 in 100 chance is too generous in many cases.
As an extreme example, a tank with an unstabilised gun is bouncing along a rough road, full tilt and taking pot shots at a sniper. With the best intentions of the gunner,the sniper is still far less than 1% of the total area that the gun might be pointing at when the trigger is pulled (even allowing for an area effect weapon, there is a lot of sky for the shell to sail off into), so a 1% hit chance is exceedingly generous, yet as long as the target is in range, this is what the game gives it.
And I see a lot of 1% to hit chances in the games I play.

So I think that the real reason we feel we witness an excess of low probability hits, is not just because they are memorable, though that is undoubtable a large part of it, but rather it is because there is an excess of low probabilty targets being offered as viable, when really they should be counted as targets at less than 1% chance of hitting and therefore be ineligible as a target.

I've got other statistical queries, but I should probably receive my beasting for this post first.

Be gentle.

[Wdll]

I am not sure about that. For example in the greek borders every year there are deaths of illegal immigrants, drug carriers etc trying to pass through the borders and in at least a couple of cases each year there will be a misfire from a dropped gun (greek border patrol) that managed to kill a few of them on the opposite ridge or something. The chances of that happening must be under 1% too, but it happens.

[PanzerBob]

Personally I think percentages are fine, but they only tell part of the story on the battlefield. The Fog of War plays into these things on a regular basis, certainly one of the strengths of the game. The only time I might belabour a percentage is when I'm down to my last rounds. In training high scores on the range are measure of proficiency, and the hope is the more one becomes an extension the weapon better the chance the weapon will do what it was designed to do.

[Sniper23]

I personally think that strategy,morale,and training is more inportant then woieing about the percentages.

once played a game{one of my firsts in mbt]the enemy was getting lucky all over the place but thank to strategy,training,and morale i was able to pull of a draw

spelling sucks!

the battlefield is were it all comes together or fall's apart[as i leard last week]