Quote:
johan osterman said:
Chrispedersen, I somewhat doubt you have gotten most heroes by turn 30 with luck -3. Since the heroes have worked this way since dom 1 and most other people seem to have impressions consistent with the way they are supposed to work I think you might have misremembered.
The appearence of heroes is based solely on homeprovince luck scale. Captured provinces won't matter. As someone said it should be 3% +/- 1 per scale setting a turn to get a hero.
Number of luck events are determnined by homeprovince scales and number of provinces, IIRC. The events are categorised as either bad luck or good luck events, the ratio of which are dependent on your home province luck scale. Once the general nature and number of events are determined the will be randomly assigned to provinces. There they will be randomly generated if the province does not have the requirements for an event the event will be rerolled. For the purposes of what events might occur enemy dominion luck scale in a province will be coniderewd unluck, unluck scales will still be unluck. So in order to get the 3000 gold event you will have the event occur in a province where you have your dominion and a plus 3 luck scale.
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You may be right. I have no idea what the total number of heros are. But in the current game, with luck -3, with less than 30 turns, I have two of the sons, the first and the 3rd son.
In a Gath Game, with -3 luck ... less than turn 40 .. I have 2 heros as well, although I cannot recall their names.
I do not mean to say that I am getting more than 50%. I do mean to say that having a negative luck scale, and -3 in particular does not seem to be precluding getting national heros.
I also do mean to say that I have observed this on enough games that I believe this is not statistically aberrant.
So, I don't know if its
a) because we do not know the mechanism for heros
b) perhaps its a racial feature of the new races
but I'm reasonably sure its not
c). I'm hallucinating.
I would further contend a couple of points:
I don't believe luck scales consider a ratio at all. I believe rather it represents each individual luck events chance of being good or bad.
However, the ratio of events will vary widely.
I do agree that luck, dominion, and scales, as well as the contents and territory type do contribute and/or unlock certain events.
Lastly: I have often wondered did fortune teller units reduce the percentage chance of bad events - or, did it represent the chance of cancelling a bad event. I tend to believe the latter.
To illustrate:
Suppose you have 10 fortune teller units with a cumulative 50% chance.
Suppose you have Negative luck, to the extent that you have a 33% chance good, 66% bad.
Does the fortune teller reduce the chance of bad to 16%.. or as I suspect if a negative event occurs, does it have a 50% choice of cancelling it.
The former makes fortune tellers much more important.
But I have to say in thinking about it.. with around 10 fortune tellers.. I don't EVER recall getting a negative event.