Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[Squirrelloid]

Except there are substantial problems with it checking for each event on a non-province-by-province basis. Namely, no obvious way you accrue more events as #provinces increases, and no way to factor in local scales. So i'm not sure your (a) is anywhere near certain - indeed, it would seem the evidence suggests against it.

Now, actual P(event) could actually be P(event|#provinces), as a decreasing function with respect to provinces. This seems a rather complicated model given what we know of JK's coding style, however. (I mean, the game uses a distance metric near manhattan metric because calculating real distance was too much processor power per calculation - clearly simple was better as far as JK was concerned). But we don't *know* unless someone wants to do some code-diving.

Until we determine a plausible mechanism for generating events, can we restrict ourselves to totally neutral dominion? Lets not complicate things before we have a good basic model to work with.