Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[thejeff]

Wait, those numbers don't make sense.
34 events in 10 turns as the low end?
Averaging more than 3/turn?

In my test, I got 1 4 event turn and many 2 event turns.

If you're getting that many with neutral scales, something else is going on.

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by Finalgenesis

Could there also be a cap on number of province affecting event generation frequency? After all, with only 1 province, you definitely see less then 34 events in 10 turns (from play observation not actual testing). Perhaps once you hit 10-20 provinces, any additional provinces no longer impact your event frequency.

I specifically chose 4 territories, so that if their was some kind of limit of only 1 P(e) event could be checked per province, that there would be enough provinces so that all 4
P(e) events could be expressed.

I am saying, and I think the evidence bears this out, that P(e) is not a function of the number of provinces.

By the way, the event table strongly suggests that if you have turmoil scales expressed in a province, that can be worthwhile to garrison troops in the province. The cost of the garrison is
is less than the likely cost of the barbarian events. Even better of course is to increase pd to a point where you dont need to worry about it - however that falls to gameplay, and the value of capital questions.

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by thejeff

Wait, those numbers don't make sense.
34 events in 10 turns as the low end?
Averaging more than 3/turn?

In my test, I got 1 4 event turn and many 2 event turns.

If you're getting that many with neutral scales, something else is going on.

I'm dealing with 4 nations, each with 4 provinces, at the low end. And 4 nations, each with 8 provinces at the high end.

And yes, the numbers dont' make sense if you think events are a function of # of provinces. I don't think that.

[militarist]

One of ways to check is number of possible events affects total number of events a player will have can be done by comparing 2 builds - one with magic2, another with magic or or drain1. Magic adds a lot of events.Luck1 also add events.

If it amount of event's doesn't depend on province count, then what...If you have capital with good luck scales /dominion and conquered a province, your overall luck becomes lower until luck scale in that province achieves the level you had in capital?

[chrispedersen]

Militarist: my last test had four nations

Two with 0 luck
one with +3 luck
one with -3 luck

My next test (date uncertain) will be

Two nations with 0 order
one nation with 3 order
one nation with 3 turmoil

I suspect that this will show reduced events for the +3 order, and increased events for the turmoil.

now, for the +0 nations, 94% of the time, either 0 or 1 event occured. I don't think that any P(eip) results could surpress P(e) that much. Could be wrong.

for the luck nations +/-3 it clearly resulted in more luck events. The number of zero events was pretty constant at 20%.

[thejeff]

Originally Posted by chrispedersen

I'm dealing with 4 nations, each with 4 provinces, at the low end. And 4 nations, each with 8 provinces at the high end.

And yes, the numbers dont' make sense if you think events are a function of # of provinces. I don't think that.

Oh, 34 events over 4 nations. 8-9 events/nation over 10 turns. That fits my expectations a lot better.

[thejeff]

Just another complication to add to the question:

How do events in independent provinces fit into this?

[Finalgenesis]

I will admit to not being able to fully understand this. So all tests below were with 4 nations each? When you say 22,27,54,46 luck events, you mean for the 4 nations seperately over 50 turns? For the ones below, 0,1,2,3,4 are events and the 4 rows are for 4 nations? the 26, 19.4 is that over 50 turns 26 had no event, 19 had 1 event and 4 had 2 events?

Originally Posted by chrispedersen

ok; With 50 turns, 0 luck 0 luck -3 +3 4 territories
22, 27, 54, and 46 luck events

With 8 territories same scales
24 24 64 55 luck events.


A few observational data.

1. With over 100 turns run - there were never any turns with
ZERO luck events (after turn 1).
2. I watched various emigration events where pop was lost.
There were never any pop gains the same turn.
3. Four events occured to one nation once in both sample sizes.


Number distribution
With 4 territories
0,1,2,3,4
33,11,4,1
26,19.4
15.17.11.5.1
19,18,7,5



With 8 territories,
0 1 2 3 4
28,19,3,0
29,18,3,0
10,16,29,3,1
11,24,13,2

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by thejeff

Just another complication to add to the question:

How do events in independent provinces fit into this?

well, it isn't 8/nation.

For example, the +o nations got 20 events, the +-3 nations got 56
over the first and last 10.

As for independent provinces - beats me. But I doubt the number of events varies if you have computer controlled vs indy, vs players.

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by Finalgenesis

I will admit to not being able to fully understand this. So all tests below were with 4 nations each? When you say 22,27,54,46 luck events, you mean for the 4 nations seperately over 50 turns? For the ones below, 0,1,2,3,4 are events and the 4 rows are for 4 nations? the 26, 19.4 is that over 50 turns 26 had no event, 19 had 1 event and 4 had 2 events?

1. No. 50 turns were done for 4 nations with 4 provinces.
50 turns were done for 4 nations with 8 provinces.
2. correct.
3. No. In the second data I am presenting the number distribution. Nation 2 had 26 turns with 0 events, 19 with 1, 4 with 2.