Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[Finalgenesis]

I thought it might be pretty simple to code in #province affecting event even if you're doing a non-province-by-province basis. something like the example I used 2 post back (I didn't put the example in the "clarified" post you read so you probably missed it):
event=10%+(20%*(x-1/x)) where x is province you have
to demonstrate a dimishing effect as thejeff's data might suggest. so 1 province = 4x 10% check, 2 provinces = 4x 20% check, 3 province = 4x 27% check ...etc with this random non-realistic example (it's a pretty inelegant sample formula), except there is obviously more factors in the formula then is present in this example, in order to account for anomalies for Jeff's results.

I agree though that nothing short of code diving is going to give us anything concrete to work with, so it's an excercise in futility at the end.