Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[chrispedersen]

A few comments:

I prefer an order3, Mis2 approach. However, on some nations, a
Luck3, turmoil3, death3 (magic3) approach is equally viable.

Specifically, nations that have fortunetellers, or have chosen a fortune teller divinity.

If you build nothing but Fortuneteller (5) units in your capital, you will have %badevent = -100 by the time turn 10 winds around. (Which to my mind is when a lot of bad events get enabled).

I do not recall ever getting a plague event in such circumstances (ie., where the luck + fortuneteller >=100%).

As I recommended in the Mictlan thread, I don't recommend D3 scales for gold so much. I like them it will eventually open up the death path for you by the appearance of necromancers.

The Luck scale has the highest effects on Death and after that on magic. So if you are going to maximize your luck scale, you want to carefully manage these two scales to determine the type and quality of events you will get.

[Wrana]

While agreeing with chrispedersen in many respects,

Originally Posted by chrispedersen

If you build nothing but Fortuneteller (5) units in your capital, you will have %badevent = -100 by the time turn 10 winds around. (Which to my mind is when a lot of bad events get enabled).

- is clearly wrong. Each Fortuneteller has his/her own, independent chance to prevent bad events. So, even 10 (or 100) Fortunetellers won't prevent all bad events. But they'll prevent enough to make difference. Also, this reasoning works equally in case of Misfortune. Actually, I think that Luck vs. Order choice (when you don't have points for both, of course!) more depends on whether your nation is more gold- or gem-dependent. And this, in turn, on presence of good non-sacred units and on fortress types. Some also argue for Turmoil/Luck when you would bloodhunt extensively.

[Calahan]

Originally Posted by Wrana

- is clearly wrong. Each Fortuneteller has his/her own, independent chance to prevent bad events. So, even 10 (or 100) Fortunetellers won't prevent all bad events. But they'll prevent enough to make difference.

@ Wrana - Please do not post absolutes about the game mechanics based on your own beliefs or theories without first testing to back them up. Since it is you who is clearly wrong on this occasion, and Chris Pedersen is correct (although his maths skills are a bit worrrying )

The fortune teller ability has already been proven to stack, and a total of 100 does indeed prevent all bad events from happening (as the attached save file, which I posted ~2 years ago shows).

Posting false information about how specific game mechanics work (without first testing) only serves to confuse new players (and seasoned players for that matter)

[chrispedersen]

Nice to see you posting again Cal. You wanna test item bonuses on global dispels btw?

As for math ability.. accurate within the handwave precision I was talking about... Some events activate on turn 7, others earlier and later. 10% here or there is a quibble.

[Gregstrom]

I think the math bit was a reference to

If you build nothing but Fortuneteller (5) units in your capital, you will have %badevent = -100 by the time turn 10 winds around.

[Calahan]

Originally Posted by chrispedersen

You wanna test item bonuses on global dispels btw?

Can't say I have any plans to test the global mechanics for a while. IIRC how I tested it last year, shortly after being enlightened to the truth from a talk with Micah, it was something like this.... (not 100% I remember, as it was literally a five minute job)

Two N5 pretenders casting minimum Mother Oaks. First one casting it with a load of boosters (probably +6 from MLich with tree staff, twisty armour, three Misc), then having the second one try to overwrite the global without boosters. The extra 6 levels (so 30 bonus points at 5 per level) from the boosters should have made the global virtually immune to a base level overwrite, but it didn't, and since the random element on the global mechanic is only a drn, I thought it unlikely that a drn roll would have resulted in a 30+ score so often. So I concluded from that brief run-through that Micah was correct when telling me boosters are ignored for global bonus levels.


I suppose a drn roll could have thrown out a load of 30+ returns just to trick me, but for now I'll assume it didn't

Originally Posted by Gregstrom

I think the math bit was a reference to

Yep, Greg has it with regards my mattymatics reference. My decaying mental abilities are not yet degraded to a sufficient level where it can't spot that 5x10 is 50 and not 100


Also with regards the Fortune Teller ability, I should add that it does not stack with the Luck scale. ie. If you are getting +39% (+45% CBM) chance of good events from Luck 3, you still need a total of 100 Fortune Teller ability to stop bad events, as I'm pretty certain they are two separate mechanics. At least they appear to be. ie. You can not prevent all bad events by making-up the shortfall from the Luck scale bonus with a Fortune Teller total of 61 (55 CBM).

[chrispedersen]

Also with regards the Fortune Teller ability, I should add that it does not stack with the Luck scale. ie. If you are getting +39% (+45% CBM) chance of good events from Luck 3, you still need a total of 100 Fortune Teller ability to stop bad events, as I'm pretty certain they are two separate mechanics. At least they appear to be. ie. You can not prevent all bad events by making-up the shortfall from the Luck scale bonus with a Fortune Teller total of 61 (55 CBM).

I'm pretty sure you're wrong.

[Verjigorm]

Originally Posted by chrispedersen

I'm pretty sure you're wrong.

You can make a province immune to bad events with 100 total points of fortune telling ability, but it doesn't "shift" the even to a good event, it just nullifies it. This was shown in a statistically significant test elsewhere on the board.

Basically, your Luck scale operates independently, saying yes there is an event or no there is not and then selects an event from the list of possible events based on how your luck scale has been tipped.


Then when the event has been selected, if it is bad, the computer rolls dice to see if your fortune tellers successfully counter it based on a d100 versus the total fortunetelling skill in your province and if successful, no event occurs.

That's my understanding of event mechanics.

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by Verjigorm

You can make a province immune to bad events with 100 total points of fortune telling ability, but it doesn't "shift" the even to a good event, it just nullifies it. This was shown in a statistically significant test elsewhere on the board.

Basically, your Luck scale operates independently, saying yes there is an event or no there is not and then selects an event from the list of possible events based on how your luck scale has been tipped.


Then when the event has been selected, if it is bad, the computer rolls dice to see if your fortune tellers successfully counter it based on a d100 versus the total fortunetelling skill in your province and if successful, no event occurs.

That's my understanding of event mechanics.

We agree on a lot.
We agree the luck scale increases or decreases the chance of a luck event.

However, the luck scale also changes the chance if an event is good or not. At issue is whether the fortune teller ability stacks with luck scale.

My memory (old and infirm as it is) recalls that a jade emperor (66% fortune teller event) stacks with 45 % luck to yield no bad events in the province that he dwells.

I find it hard to believe that illwinter would invent two mechanisms to do the same thing.

[Edi]

Originally Posted by chrispedersen

I find it hard to believe that illwinter would invent two mechanisms to do the same thing.

This is a dangerous assumption, since they have a history of having done with certain aspects of the game.