Communists on the moon !

[President_Elect_Shang]

A race for the moon, I seriously doubt it. I don’t think that the government or NASA will be changing their focus from Mars anytime soon. They are more likely to just sit back and say “Been there, got the shirt”. As for the Chinese I say go ahead and land baby. Since about 18% of the export trade is to the US and only about 2% import for them is from us this venture could lead to an increase in trade (technology wise) and it would tie our two countries together more. Since China has had around an 8% growth in its economy for some time it will only be a matter of decades before it assumes the place of the next world super power. My point to all of this is that with a link made from trade it could avoid the next Cold War. Having lived through and served in the armed forces during one I am in no rush to live out, or have my children live through another one.

[Cyrien]

I think as far as the US is concerned the moon is now largely just a stepping stone and site for a base while the US moves out to bigger fish. I think the primary interest of the US is Mars with secondary interests in the asteroid belt and various of the outer planets moons.

As for the old Soviet moon rocket... yah that was a nice piece of work. Too bad it never really worked right. 30 seperate rocket thrust boosters. Proved impossible to ballance them all so the simpler US rocket worked while the nice but too complicated Soviet rocket was a miserable failure.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1883348.stm

[oleg]

But what if Chinese evacuate all US artifacts from the Moon surface and claim they are in fact the first men over there ?

[Narratio]

China on the Moon? A damn good idea. It might finally get some of the western governments to shell out cash to put bases there. Next thing you know, remember Heinleins' story "The moon is a harsh mistress"?

[Cyrien]

The Chinese would have a much larger undertaking to get to the moon than the US would to get back. The Chinese have largely been using old Soviet space rockets and technology. The Soviet Lunar rocket for manned flight never worked. So they are starting from scratch there. Next, the Chinese moon missions are not manned. That is a rumor. The Chinese plan to land an automated probe on the moon by 2010 and have it return with rock samples. They have themselves denied any plans of landing a man there. Not surprising considering the extreme cost and completely independent development of their own man capable lunar rocket.

Chinese deny manned mission: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2000506.stm

Lets not all get so excited we get ahead of ourselves. I would have to predict that the US will return to the moon before anyone else goes. The US has been there before. The US has the experience to draw on that no one else does.

And while looking at the Chinese don't forget the US are driving more and more for a renewed interest in space exploration. Both manned and unmanned.

Bush plans? http://www.nbc17.com/technology/2683117/detail.html

I don't much like Bush. But if he gets us back in Space and on the moon and beyond then at least I can say he did one thing right.

[ December 11, 2003, 02:29: Message edited by: Cyrien ]

[President_Elect_Shang]

Originally posted by Cyrien:
The Chinese would have a much larger undertaking to get to the moon than the US would to get back. The Chinese have largely been using old Soviet space rockets and technology. The Soviet Lunar rocket for manned flight never worked. So they are starting from scratch there.

Right I agree, they will most likely seek our help and since we can build the technology here it would be cheaper than them tooling a plant of theirs to do the same thing. Thus my point [below] of increased trade.

Lets not all get so excited we get ahead of ourselves. I would have to predict that the US will return to the moon before anyone else goes. The US has been there before. The US has the experience to draw on that no one else does.

This is a good point, the US will need a steppping stone into the system and what better place to use?

[ December 11, 2003, 05:07: Message edited by: President Elect Shang ]

[JurijD]

Originally posted by Cyrien:
The Chinese would have a much larger undertaking to get to the moon than the US would to get back. The Chinese have largely been using old Soviet space rockets and technology. The Soviet Lunar rocket for manned flight never worked. So they are starting from scratch there.

Next, the Chinese moon missions are not manned. That is a rumor. The Chinese plan to land an automated probe on the moon by 2010 and have it return with rock samples. They have themselves denied any plans of landing a man there.

Lets not all get so excited we get ahead of ourselves. I would have to predict that the US will return to the moon before anyone else goes. The US has been there before. The US has the experience to draw on that no one else does.

In general:
Hmm, I still say the EU (ESA) the Japaneese and the Russians (RKA) should get together for a cup of tea and some cookies With the Russians still having most of the know-how in rocet engineering (heck even the americans are buying 30 year old N1 engines from them to put into new titans) and some monetary injections from the EU and Japan these theree should be able to put together something worth while to challenge China and the US. The problem is not money and know-how however... today its simply not COOL to go to space anymore, at least not to the general public and the politicians just don't see how they will justify the HUGE sums of money that would be needed for a new Moon manned program.

About China:
They deny it? Well good that means they are hard at work on it already. As far I remember the Russians and the Americans denied a big part of their programs too until it was time to show them off... say a few months before launch. (Ok, J.F.K did brag about going to the moon... but that was ages ago )

About the US going back to the Moon:
I don't think It'll happen. NASA has no money, no capable rockets and by now the old know-hows are enjoying some R&R in Florida Building a 30 year old rocket again from scratch isn't as easy as it sounds, even if you did it once before. Ok the US has an advantage over China and any other competitors but not a very big one. I say China could catch up in 2, 3 years if they wanted to. I eman if the US was able to do it in less than 9 years in the 1960s', with todays technology I don't think China would need half that time (especially if the russians give thema hand or two... or three)

About the space program in general:
I think these guys got it all wrong. The problem is that there is no long term plan involved. What we are doing now is something similar to this: imagine you were playing a game of SE IV and you only had one small planet under your control. Then instead of colonizing your home system and spreading out you would start not by builing colony ships and building new colonies but by constructing scouts and sending them out to "visit" other solar systems. (of course you'd only be able to build 1 every year because you'd have no income-technology).

I hope to god someone finds some kind of bacteria on Mars, then people will get interested in space once more and the space angencies will have 20 years time to spend spend spend heheh

[ December 11, 2003, 11:15: Message edited by: JurijD ]