Dead pretender poll

[Pocus]

Originally posted by Jasper:
If defenders win ties, then casting Magic Duel would be spending time to risk a mage in order to maybe a _cheaper_ mage. You'd want to know you had at least +2 and probably +3 more Astral than your target before considering Mage Duel.[/QB]

the problem I see is that you have already very big chances to win a duel even with an edge of +2, and with the tie for you. And +2 is so simple to have when you are Arco or Pythium versus (Marignon, Ctis, Jotun) that they will practically win more than 90% of the duels they initiate. The supremacy IMO is then so great that in a war between an astral 3/4 nation versus an astral 1/2, you are preventing the weaker astral to field any of their mages, thus crippling them enormously before even starting the fight.

I dont have the figures, but I would like to know what is the probability to win a duel, as the defender, when you are at -2 and when you loose tie. Thats must be pretty low.

Would you risk your grand masters at 270 gp apiece, or Witch Hunter (less costly, but even more loosy in an astral duel), knowing that you are facing Arco or Pythium? I dont think so. A single mystic with skull cap and medaillion (to counter the ones Marignon would field) would fries them all.

[Nagot Gick Fel]

Originally posted by Pocus:
I dont have the figures, but I would like to know what is the probability to win a duel, as the defender, when you are at -2 and when you loose tie. Thats must be pretty low.

1/6 (17%) if the higher skilled mage initiates the duel, and 10/36 (28%) otherwise. But If the defender has 2 mages who take the risk to magic duel a single mage who's +2 in astral skill, the odds climb to 48%. With 3 mages, that's 61%. So even with winning ties, the risk for the attacker is real.

Would you risk your grand masters at 270 gp apiece, or Witch Hunter (less costly, but even more loosy in an astral duel), knowing that you are facing Arco or Pythium? I dont think so. A single mystic with skull cap and medaillion (to counter the ones Marignon would field) would fries them all.

The greatest threat comes from TPers/gaters, because you can't see them coming. But when that happens the defender has the benefit of the first shot. Look at the numbers above - 2 Witch Hunters cost only 300 gp, and have 48% chance to fry an Arch-Theurg which costs way more if they duel first. Things are not as desperate as you think.

[Pocus]

Originally posted by Nagot Gick Fel:

quote:

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Originally posted by Pocus:
I dont have the figures, but I would like to know what is the probability to win a duel, as the defender, when you are at -2 and when you loose tie. Thats must be pretty low.

1/6 (17%) if the higher skilled mage initiates the duel, and 10/36 (28%) otherwise. But If the defender has 2 mages who take the risk to magic duel a single mage who's +2 in astral skill, the odds climb to 48%. With 3 mages, that's 61%. So even with winning ties, the risk for the attacker is real.

Would you risk your grand masters at 270 gp apiece, or Witch Hunter (less costly, but even more loosy in an astral duel), knowing that you are facing Arco or Pythium? I dont think so. A single mystic with skull cap and medaillion (to counter the ones Marignon would field) would fries them all.

The greatest threat comes from TPers/gaters, because you can't see them coming. But when that happens the defender has the benefit of the first shot. Look at the numbers above - 2 Witch Hunters cost only 300 gp, and have 48% chance to fry an Arch-Theurg which costs way more if they duel first. Things are not as desperate as you think.

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ok, I fired XL.

You have indeed 17% chance of winning a duel, if you are at -2 and loosing tie.

Your percentages pertaining to examples where the lower astral nation initiate a duel are exacts, but I dont think many people will have the guts to engage witch hunters in a counter battery of duel against Arco (WH cost nearly the same btw)

I prefer to point out that a single mystic, unenhanced has 69% of killing 2 WH in a row, and 57% to kill three.
Costly enough to warrant that the defender earn the tie IMO.

[Nagot Gick Fel]

Originally posted by Pocus:
ok, I fired XL.

Your percentages pertaining to examples where the lower astral nation initiate a duel are exacts, but I dont think many people will have the guts to engage witch hunters in a counter battery of duel against Arco (WH cost nearly the same btw)

If it works vs magic duel (never tested it), I think Phoenix Pyre could give your WH enough lives to make this irrelevant. If it doesn't, I can imagine a few scenarii where this counter-battery fire would be the best thing to do - eg, when sitting in a province which the enemy can only reach with gateway. With shamen (who costs roughly half a mystic when you factor in their halved upkeep) I wouldn't hesitate.

I prefer to point out that a single mystic, unenhanced has 69% of killing 2 WH in a row, and 57% to kill three.
Costly enough to warrant that the defender earn the tie IMO.

Costly enough because you're only considering the worst case: cheapest astral-3 initiating duel vs most expensive astral-1. Now do the same math with an Arch Theurg vs 4 or 5 Star Childs (assuming these fire first), and do a mean before giving figures.

[Pocus]

Originally posted by Nagot Gick Fel:

quote:

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Originally posted by Pocus:
I prefer to point out that a single mystic, unenhanced has 69% of killing 2 WH in a row, and 57% to kill three.
Costly enough to warrant that the defender earn the tie IMO.

Costly enough because you're only considering the worst case: cheapest astral-3 initiating duel vs most expensive astral-1. Now do the same math with an Arch Theurg vs 4 or 5 Star Childs (assuming these fire first), and do a mean before giving figures.

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True in theory, false most of the time in practice, because of the thunder rod effect you have with magic duel, the same one you get when you Vengeance of the Dead somebody :

The highest astral level will be targeted. I wonder if somebody can really send 3/4 archtheurg in a gating party against a weak astral nation, without having at least one enhanced with starshine skull cap and/or astral medallion.

Where as I would not dare pretend that somebody is rich enough to give +1 astral items on astral 1 mages which are more or less in a province to counter a 'possible' gateway.

So in essence the situation you speak of is seldomly, if never encountered, in my humble opinion ( a mere +2 supremacy between an attacking party of a strong astral nation, versus a defensive and/or garrisoning party of a weak astral nation).

Well you can argue that it can happen. Sure. It can also happen to gate 75 summer lions with only one leader, loose the leader by a stray arrow, and have all your lions dissolve*. But I think you speak of situations which have a reasonable chance of happening between players somehow experimented.

* : happened to me in my first pbem, so the example is demonstrative of a newbie attitude

so when you spoke of doing a mean, I concur. But do a ponderated mean, with the associated probabilities that the events appear.

[ October 07, 2003, 13:39: Message edited by: Pocus ]

[Pocus]

No Johan, the dogmatic discussions of the newsgroup are not yet in Shrapnel forum. What can lead you to think that

[johan osterman]

Originally posted by Pocus:
No Johan, the dogmatic discussions of the newsgroup are not yet in Shrapnel forum. What can lead you to think that

As long as there is still discussion on a subject I do not think we should worry about dogmatism.