We can say this or that about TW AI, but as far as the AIs go, it is good, maybe not at its brightest as the strategical one, but the tactical one is. Of course you can beat it, but you can fully control your own units there, so it's not really comparable to the game where you cannot do that. Even with tactical control, if you mod the game so that the strategical AI does not build droves of peasants, but rather some quality troops instead, it puts up a very decent challenge on hard and expert. Try autoresolving in MTW every time, and you'll see how you'll fare.
And why would you leave an undefended province when attacking anyway?
