Balance issue: order-luck, a no brainer?

[SurvivalistMerc]

I have only played the demo Version. But I have to agree with Zen. Order 3 (but without any misfortune) reduces random events to a very manageable level.

And if I can reduce negative random events while getting income with my scales, I'm all for it.

Whatever the percentage chance of a random event is...let us call it X.

Order 3, misfortune 3 reduce the likelihood by 30% but increase the likelihood that it is negative to 80%. Whether that is good or bad depends on the initial likelihood of an event, which as I understand it is non-public.

If the initial likelihood is 100%....
70% chance of event, 80% negative...56% negative event. Not good.

If the initial likelihood is more like 50%,

20% chance of event, 80% negative or 16%

With even scales, 50% likelihood of event, 50% negative, would be 25%.

However, even if the initial likelihood were 100%, the 56% you would have with order 3, unluck 3 is not noticably worse than the 50% you would have with even scales.

I totally loved my game with order 3, balanced luck scales, though.

SaberCherry, can you tell me how my reasoning is invalid (if it is)?