the (AI) message "Nation X has declared war on your unholy nation"

[General Tacticus]

1. I have a theory that the AI can read the score graph, and will declare war if
a) you are getting too far ahead in gold income/province and
b) your army looks weak
regardless of whether the AI knows you or not. I have often noticed that when my army looks weak (i.e., I'm playing Ulm and I have a small number of top quality troops), and I'm getting ahead in provinces/income, everyone seems to declare war... whereas I get far less war declarations when I am fielding a huge army of worthless units, and don't shoot ahead in the other graphs...

2. I too, would like more diplomacy option. Can anyone tell whether the AI really takes notice of gifts you might send, and becomes less likely to declare war ? The only thing I know is that it never offers me any...
And if the AI does care, could we get some way of knowing how likely an AI is to declare war, so we can try and change its mind ? And some way to make a truce would also be interesting...