Tien Chi Default

[PhilD]

Originally posted by rabelais:

quote:

---

Originally posted by Norfleet:
Hero acquisition is not cumulative. You get a 3% + luck chance of a hero every turn, as long as supplies permit. So if you have a 6%(w/ luck 3) chance of getting a hero this turn, you STILL have a 6% chance of getting one next turn. It's not going to be 12%. This means you have a 94% chance of NOT getting a hero on any given turn. So after 16 turns, you have a (0.94)^16 = 37% chance of not getting a hero. Hardly a hero every 16 turns or so. After 50 turns, you'll have a ~4.5% chance of not getting a hero. It can happen, but it's not lucky.

Hmm. Well I think it should be cumulative. Even if at a lower base.

Make the difference between luck and misfortune more discernable.

Rabe the Bummed

---

The difference IS discernable, only there's a large uncertainty on when you'll get Heroes, if any.

With Misfortune 2, you only have about 19% chance of getting a Hero in your 20 first turns.

Misfortune 1: 33%

Luck 0: 46%

Luck 1: 56%

Luck 2: 64%

Luck 3: 71%

Also, with the high luck Ratings, there is a decent chance that you will see more than one Hero in that amount of time, or maybe 30 turns. Not bad, if you have good Heroes.

Of course, most of the time just your Heroes are not a good reason to take Luck. But the difference IS significant.

[rabelais]

Originally posted by PhilD:

Also, with the high luck Ratings, there is a decent chance that you will see more than one Hero in that amount of time, or maybe 30 turns. Not bad, if you have good Heroes.

Of course, most of the time just your Heroes are not a good reason to take Luck. But the difference IS significant.

I did not say the difference was not statistically significant.

I said between the high variance and relatively modest increases for positive luck, that the current implementation makes it very difficult to tell you are getting a benefit.

This is IMHO, ... ahem... Unfortunate


Rabe the Punny Guy

[Graeme Dice]

Originally posted by rabelais:
[QB]I said between the high variance and relatively modest increases for positive luck, that the current implementation makes it very difficult to tell you are getting a benefit.[/QB

I would disagree with you completely here. About 1/4 games with order 3 misfortune 2 will have at least one major setback in the first 10 turns, a setback that easily compensates for the 80 nation points you got for the scale.