luck events

[PhilD]

I'm right in the middle of a Tuatha game myself (Cradle map, with Poor world settings and Hard research settings - this makes for a very slow game!).

I only have Luck 1, but got 3 heroes in the first 50 turns or so. The heroes will always appear at very random times (except if you use Misfortune 3, where they should not appear at all): even with Luck 3, your chance of a hero each turn is only 6%; this means there will be a lot of variation, from one game to the next, in the time it takes to get your heroes.

I don't keep track of all the events I get, but I believe even Luck 1 brought me many more good events than bad. Nothing major, but I did get several militia/flagellant events (two Militia events in the same province, a few turns from each other), lots of free gems (including the "witch cursed some of your units when you took her gems", sometimes in provinces where I had no units), one free Death mage (good thing; it was early in the game), and various gold events. No major bad events in my capital (though I did get a "rain took out 25% of the pop" in another province).

[Norfleet]

Originally posted by Minrhael:
Turn16: 1st national hero Bernlad the Green Knight. Now I play Tuatha a LOT, and I think this is the latest I've ever gotten my first national hero. I usually only play luck 1, with luck 3 I was expecting at least 2 by now. Anyone got that formula handy?

Getting a hero isn't really a random event, so to speak: It's not affected by random event frequency, only by luck scale.

The chance of getting a hero is equal to 3% + your luck scale. So if you have luck-3, you have a 6% noncumulative chance of receiving a hero every turn while supplies Last. Therefore, on average, you can expect to receive a hero every 16-17 turns. The chance of NOT receiving a hero in 16-17 turns is equal to 0.94^17, or 34%.

The frequency with which you are receiving heroes is roughly par for the course.

[CayseP]

When you add up the money lost from putting those 2 luck points into order, I'd get +14% income. In this game where I got hemmed in in a low income corner, I made ~9000 gold income total through 31 turns. That would be +1260 gold, which is already more than I got through my luck events.

Assuming that your scales had time to affect all taken provinces instantly. 10% would probably be a more realistic estimate... depending on neighbours and dominion str.

[Chris Byler]

Originally posted by CayseP:

quote:

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When you add up the money lost from putting those 2 luck points into order, I'd get +14% income. In this game where I got hemmed in in a low income corner, I made ~9000 gold income total through 31 turns. That would be +1260 gold, which is already more than I got through my luck events.

Assuming that your scales had time to affect all taken provinces instantly. 10% would probably be a more realistic estimate... depending on neighbours and dominion str.

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True, but this is even more of an issue with turmoil/luck - IIRC event frequency depends on your *God's* turmoil scale, not the province's, while the chance of an event being good or bad depends on the province's luck scale.

In other words, your turmoil gives you more events even before your luck dominion spreads to the places they will occur. So don't conquer provinces under a misfortune dominion until *after* you have preached them to yours, or get them hammered by turmoil/misfortune.

Any chance that a future patch will fix this problem with order/turmoil? Calculate an event chance for each province, accumulate a list of potential events and then prune it if it is over the cap (or just remove the cap, let events not scale to irrelevance on big maps). Letting your turmoil follow your luck instead of precede it might reduce some of the bitterness of people getting too many negative events with strong luck - because they'd get more of their events in provinces that actually *had* the luck.