Experience the impact!

[Endoperez]

Saber Cherry was a wonderful person with great talent in maths and programming. She has since left the forums and was studying when we Last heard of him. This list of hers tells the probabilities of success when two stats are compared in generic DomII dice roll. I quote the results in here. It seems these only matched the mathematically calculated ones up to four digits, but I believe that is enough...

The most interesting numbers are in the middle. If attacker's att is two points higher than defender's def theprobability of hit is 70%. With no difference it would be 54. 16% change with two stars seems nice for me... Not too big, but visible. And don't forget that experience lowers encumberance!

The old thread got deleted accidentally, but here's the crucial element

This is a chart of the probability that the difference between two dice rolls will meet or exceed the listed number. Each dice roll is a 2d6*, or 2d6 upwardly-open pair.

How to use the chart: An example.

What is the probability that a light infantry (att=10) will hit a soulless (def=2, after applying the "fist" penalty)? The difference is (2-10) = -8, but hitting requires you to beat, not just meet, the enemy defense roll. So the roll difference must be at least (2-10)+1 = -7. Looking at the "-7+" row, you see that a light infantry has an 91.8% chance of hitting a soulless.

The reverse case:

Soulless has att=3 after applying the fist -1 att penalty, and a light infantry has def=12. So for a soulless to hit, it must score a differential roll of (12-3)+1 = 10. Looking at the "10+" row, a soulless has a 4.6% chance of striking a light infantry.

The chart can also be used for damage versus protection rolls, poison rolls, and probably morale and magic resist rolls. Almost all Dominions dice rolls seem to be of the form ((2d6* + attacker's modifier) - (2d6* + defender's modifier)), which this chart describes.


Testing (2d6*, labelled 0-5, offset=2) over 200000000 rolls.

Reverse-Cumulative Difference Statistics:

-30+: 99.994%
-29+: 99.992%
-28+: 99.988%
-27+: 99.984%
-26+: 99.978%
-25+: 99.969%
-24+: 99.957%
-23+: 99.941%
-22+: 99.918%
-21+: 99.887%
-20+: 99.844%
-19+: 99.785%
-18+: 99.705%
-17+: 99.596%
-16+: 99.447%
-15+: 99.244%
-14+: 98.969%
-13+: 98.601%
-12+: 98.106%
-11+: 97.442%
-10+: 96.554%
-9+: 95.373%
-8+: 93.822%
-7+: 91.805%
-6+: 89.194%
-5+: 85.852%
-4+: 81.605%
-3+: 76.281%
-2+: 69.830%
-1+: 62.391%
0+: 54.222%
1+: 45.773%
2+: 37.605%
3+: 30.165%
4+: 23.714%
5+: 18.388%
6+: 14.145%
7+: 10.802%
8+: 8.191%
9+: 6.174%
10+: 4.624%
11+: 3.444%
12+: 2.556%
13+: 1.894%
14+: 1.399%
15+: 1.031%
16+: 0.755%
17+: 0.553%
18+: 0.404%
19+: 0.295%
20+: 0.215%
21+: 0.156%
22+: 0.113%
23+: 0.082%
24+: 0.060%
25+: 0.043%
26+: 0.031%
27+: 0.023%
28+: 0.016%
29+: 0.012%
30+: 0.008%


-Cherry

Found with Shrapnel Search function, only thread with "+saber +cherry +difference +probabilities".

[rabelais]

Endoperez said:
(snip!)

And don't forget that experience lowers encumberance!

It does?? Do tell. Where's this info, please?

[Arryn]

rabelais said:

It does?? Do tell. Where's this info, please?

It only does at the 4th star. And the info is listed in Liga's manual addenda (section 7.2), which is of course available from my site.

[Arryn]

Endoperez said:
Found with Shrapnel Search function, only thread with "+saber +cherry +difference +probabilities".

Thanks for re-finding that post. I had a link to it on my links page, but the forum upgrade had broken it. I've now updated the link and the thread she started can now be gotten to (more easily) by going to my links page and clicking on the icon next to the link name. I recommend that folks read that entire thread, and not just the first post. It's very enlightening.