New chinese MBT

[SCAJolly]

Seeing as America didn't tolerate to have to share the world with the USSR, America will still not tolerate to have to share the world with China. Developing econimically and militarily in ways no one anticipated, China is truly a competitor for the title of The World's Largest Superpower.
Not only are they developing a blue-water fleet that in not many decades will rival that of the US, but they are also drooling over "re-uniting" Taiwan with its motherland, and this latter is of great concern to USA and Japan. America has already taken the side of Taiwan, and should a Chinese strike be launched, she has little to do but join in the melee. Officially, of course, there is much else to do, but if an invasion is launched, then by God there aren't many alternatives left. I doubt any US president is willing to tolerate to lose face in such a battle.
Also, the Chinese will perhaps not be as careful with their nuclear weapons as the Soviets and westerns were. They share many of the basic understandings of moral and ideology, while China's (the men in charge, of course) perception of the world is a completely different one.

[PlasmaKrab]

Pacific coexistence, anyone? No interest? Last bid!

I guess it is also part of the political game for the Chinese leaders to show off their new shiny power (at least the parts where it IS shiny ) to stand up against the almighty USA. Quite alike Kim Jong-Il's stand in North Korea, only more successful.

The point is that China is progressing impressively fast indeed, but not enough to stand against the US forces in the Pacific area, let alone invading Taiwan. One practical hing is that they don't have the amphibious capacity for that.

Besides, if Taiwan gets reunited to mainland China in the next years, it will be progressive an bloodless, like Hong-Kong with more rant
I don't want to be overly optimistic, but Chinese power apparatus is so intricately cross-controlled that no single power-crazed general is bound to launch a surprise strike anywhere just to get at the head of a war-torn country!

All progressist and thriving it may appears now, the country is deeply divided. The average Chinese is a poor farmer or worker without education, in some forsaken and trackless outback county, ruled by a distant, tax-thirsty and Kafkaïan administration and corrupt, incompetent and tax-thirsty local delegates.
The wealth generated by the new economy is more concentrated than ever, and the leaders of the next generation tend to be sharks the like of which has never been dreamed of by the combat guppies of Wall Street.

Any bump in the fast-lane road to progress could very well topple the country into an endless and bloody continental civil wars. Enough factions want more air as it is. BTW, the next Olympics could be a pretty tribune for the unheard masses of the Empire... Let's wait and see.

Shortly put, that is why I don't think China will risk a military intervention against Taiwan and a war against the US in the real world.

This is purely off-topic, but hey, I thought that was worth explaining. For what my sources are worth.

[kevin]

Oh Boy!!! We are really hitting all my favorite topics this week. My Bachelors Degree is in Chinese and Japanese history. Where do I begin?

I don't think the US Military fears China. It makes a good Hollywood story line to portray warmongering Generals playing up fear to get more budget money. I am the type of nerd who watches Congressional Briefings, and China has rarely come up in the last ten years. Generally the concern is:
1. Development of Long-Range, hypersonic, huge anti-ship missiles (practical only for sinking US Super Carriers or Oil SuperTankers)
2. Weapons proliferation, which China has cut back on since 9/11

The Chinese and the Russians are very different people, whether they are communist or not. Calling China communist today is a joke, since they are selling the last of there state-run industries. I think the Chinese Leadership is not so fatalistic as to be cavalier with nuclear weapons. They do have the attitude that the Chinese people are "peasants" who serve them, and I don't think they want to loose that power.

China does not have the power to invade Tiawan. They do not have enough amphibious capability. They can launch a large Air and Sea battle (astride the world's most busy shipping lane) and China can beat Tiawan do to sheer mass. But, to what end? They have the WTO, world acceptance and they need oil.

The Chinese power structure is somewhat unique. So far, the emerging middle and wealthy classes have not demanded a seat at the leadership table, as has happened with every other Western nation when a middle class arises. Chinese culture, emphasizing the family over the individual, and harmony over agitation, may allow an open market economy exist in a totalitarian political system. (I wrote a paper on this very subject.) Admission into the WTO, (undeserved in my opinion, but we needed them not to Veto and Enduring Freedom UN resolutions) has solidified the ruling faction's grip on power. This is the faction that wants engagement and commerece with the West.

The final thing worth noting is what I call the "Walmart effect." After 5 years the US / Chinese economies are now so thoroughly linked that trade sanctions and threats are not practical. China is growing by manufacturing dinky little things that Americans scoop up for cheap. So in the end, it is still American dollars and most Americans understand this. (ok no they don't, but those are the dumba**es that don't vote anyways) There is no need to fear the big Red Chinese Machine.

I think you will see China make a slow, very slow transition to democracy, an "Asian Democracy" much like Japan, different in form and style, just as the US and Europe practice Democracy in different ways.

[PlasmaKrab]

Wow, I would really like to read your thesis papers on this Kevin! I would never have hoped for such a specialist around!

Now you agree that China has no interest in attacking any neighbouring country without threat. They seem to have mastered quite well the tricks of 'economical warfare' and to be well beyond force shows.

Now everyone here says that agreeing that China and USSR are different, and gabbling about mad generals and so on... Should I recall that NO mad Russian general has made any silly attempt as described yet?

So, in the same way that many here play cold-war breakout scenarios without it ever having a fair chance to happen (and stay playable in this game, IIMSS), why not, in full gear paranoid gamer's imagination, consider a potential Taiwan conflict as a good scenario mining patch

Now whatever you say, Kevin, I remain quite frightened that there be a good level of political instability in China right now, external influence or not. Some people who also know China from first hand have raised this question, but I think the 'opportunity window' for any really chaotic political turnaround for China only will close quite soon.

[Imp]

Some food for thought
China is I believe the richest nation in the world & since taking back Hong Kong has made major moves to improve trade & become a major player in the world.
It wants a voice thats listened to & yes may well be aiming to usurp the USA as the major power, do they have a plan for this?
Military spending means people take them seriosly.
Heavy spending of recent on tech esp stuff that addresses resources are running dry means they want to be at the forefront of replacement techs, plus the voice might mean they get a share of whats left.
On the political front I believe a huge chunk of USAs national debt is owed to guess who, not talking billions here keep going. This could be used as leverage or suppose they say give it back you have 10 years to repay.
Response we can't do it fine we now own a good part of the USA & can really get on with trading with the world.
Don't see how anyone can take Americas side they owe the money so if China says we will have the West coast at current land prices what happens exactly.
Why bother with Taiwan they need the space
Last time I looked USA was 1st China 2nd when it comes to GDP the diffrence is China has a huge profit while USA owes over 10 trillion or most of its GDP.
As a foot note I lived in Hong Kong when British ruled it & if China copies its economic model they are on a winner.
I could never figure out where all the money came from.
Tax free port for trade
Very good pay
Very low taxes you had to be a millionare to pay British basic tax rate perhaps because of this there are lots of them.
Still managed to pay millions to Britain.
Quality of life streets ahead of the UK.
Some people will say what about the poverty, not nearly as bad as you think & sorry if offend anyone but Chinese prefer to live in what we would call cramped conditions.
Whole families multi generation under one roof & they saved the pennies.
The modern Chinese has adopted Western trends more space & spends so Hong Kong has the highest percentage of luxury stuff like Rolls Royce in the world & your average Joe drives a Merc because they prefer them to BMWs.
To give you an idea project I was on had to relocate a poor village goverment gave each family a shop & each male got a BIG flat, all females got 1/2 a flat. They promptly sold them all exept the one the family moved into.
I was in goverment flats as working for my master bedroom was well over 16' square with 2 verandas & I used to start most days by swimming in the pool that serviced 16 flats.

I just state these as examples because if Chinas economic model is based on Hong Kong the world had better start paying attention & maybe the military spending is there to make sure it does

Edit just realised what forum this is in

[SCAJolly]

@Shadowcougar
India and China have a population of respectively 1,1 and 1,3 billion (2004, I think).

@Kevin
What I perhaps did not emphasize, or remember to point out, was that wars aren't fought unless there is a proper catalyst. Before the first world war, there had to be an assassination (remember how quiet and peaceful international politics looked the months ahead). Before the second world war, Hitler had to rise to power.
What I am saying is that at the current level, I (who have no master in anything) don't anticipate the relationship between China and America, and China and Taiwan, to worsen enough for a war to escalate. Something sudden would have to happen, I believe.

Remember the rockets that were launched off Taiwan, and what this resulted in. Misunderstandings can easily result in a war, the way a rocket with a scientific mission launched from Norway nearly resulted in a nuclear response from the USSR.
My bottom line is that because a cadet spilled some Coke on the control panel he was manning, we might wake up one morning to a war between nations. Be it Indonesia and Malaysia or America and Soviet, war ain't good.

[Wdll]

Originally Posted by SCAJolly

What I perhaps did not emphasize, or remember to point out, was that wars aren't fought unless there is a proper catalyst. Before the first world war, there had to be an assassination (remember how quiet and peaceful international politics looked the months ahead). Before the second world war, Hitler had to rise to power.

Not true. Before the first world war there were many years of sped up armaments purchases and developments, there was a fast high speed cold war in progress in Europe. Huge (for then) espionage activities and interception of mail from one embassy to the other (the first time officialy for the UK, among others) The assasination was not mainly a catalyst, it was an excuse and the war would have taken place sooner or later anyway. Lots of arms, bad history, bad tempers, lots of mistrust = war.

Hitler wasn't the "catalyst". The peace treaty of the first world war was the ingredient that prepared the second world war.

[AB]

PlasmaKrab said:
Pacific coexistence, anyone? No interest? Last bid!

The point is that China is progressing impressively fast indeed, but not enough to stand against the US forces in the Pacific area, let alone invading Taiwan. One practical hing is that they don't have the amphibious capacity for that.

Wow, this really puts a cramp in my current US vs. China campaign in Taiwan!

[AB]

PlasmaKrab said:
Any bump in the fast-lane road to progress could very well topple the country into an endless and bloody continental civil wars.

Oh, well this may be a better topic for a campaign anyway!

[Shadowcougar]

Also the Chinese take the long view to a strategy as opposed to the Western short view. I have to say the Chinese to look at getting Taiwan. Back. But not in the next 25 years. They will work on the Taiwanese people first and go for peaceful reunification as opposed to fighting.

Besides the Chinese have 2 billion people and they have an open land to the north and another nation with 1 billion people who share a border (a small and mountainous) with. Some will need land to expand into and Taiwan is too small and really not worth fighting for at the cost it would take to win.