Results of 200 shots.
Ok, I ran a test in winmbt against human opponents counting the number of times a tank's main gun fires and hits/misses, or a missile hits/misses. Here is what I got after 200 shots, H=hit, M=miss
3% 1H
4% 1H 1M
5% 2M
7% 1M
8% 1H 1M
9% 2M
11% 1M
12% 1H 2M
14% 3H 4M
15% 1M
16% 3H 4M
17% 2H 1M
18% 3M
19% 2M
20% 2H 3M
21% 4H 1M
22% 2H 2M
23% 2H 4M
24% 5H 3M
25% 5H 3M
26% 2H 4M
27% 1H 4M
28% 3M
29% 3H 2M
30% 2H 6M
31% 1H 2M
32% 2H 1M
33% 6M
34% 1H 4M
35% 1H 1M
36% 1H 2M
37% 1M
38% 1M
40% 3H
41% 1H 3M
42% 4H 3M
43% 3M
44% 2H 1M
45% 2M
47% 2H 1M
48% 1M
49% 1H
50% 2M
51% 1H 2M
52% 1H
53% 1H 1M
54% 2H
55% 2M
56% 1M
57% 1H
60% 1H 1M
61% 2M
63% 1H 5M
64% 1M
66% 1H
67% 2H
68% 1H
71% 1H 1M
73% 3H
74% 1H
75% 2H 1M
76% 1H
78% 1H
79% 2H
85% 1H
90% 1H
91% 1H
93% 1H
94% 2H 1M
99% 4H
As you can see from above the majority of % to hit in winMBT are below 50% yet you still have about a 61% to hit. Now I am no scientist and I don't know how much value the above table is, but it seems to me that if you have a low % shot take it as the odds seem pretty good that the round will strike home.
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