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[TaoLibra]

No, I'm pretty sure it's not random. Retreat always takes me to the nearest star that I've already explored — nearest by travel time, that is (not necessarily nearest by a straight line), or just the physically nearest explored star if I have the Hyperdrive.

I guess "always" isn't quite accurate, because of that unrevealed Black Hole dodging incident I described above — but that's the only time I've ever seen a Retreat not go to the nearest explored star…

[Brainiac4]

I think the game is helping you out a bit in that instance. If it did target the nearest star, you'd get partway there, discover the black hole, and then be stuck in an endless loop with the only ways out being entering the combat you fled from or diving into the black hole.

It's a little bit unrealistic, but better than the alternative.

Kudos to Fingers for the catch.