China vs North Korea - October 2006

[serg3d]

Howevre defectors witness that army moral is low, army is poorly fed and low on fuel. Also in such political-economical situation army would be poorly trained. About fortifications - most of fortifications probably on the south and along coast lines. Anyway in 1941 German army passed through two Russian fortification lines ("Molotov line" and "Stalin line") barely slowing. Qualitative difference between China and North Korea Army probably no less then betwenn 1941 German and Russian Armies. Also China wouldn't be hindered by "humanitarian" issues.

[pdoktar]

I concur with serg3d here. If a conflict broke out, i think the NK army would at least suffer from desertations and bad morale. No bunker, tank, or artillery will fight without the human will to fight.

[whdonnelly]

While I think there would undoubtedly be desertions, increasing as the war went on, this is a nation unlike any other. The last three generations have been isolated and brainwashed to a great degree. For every unit that folded early, you would possibly have several that would fight to the last desperate soldier, thinking of the Japanese on Okinawa. Not through love of the Dear Leader, but through xenophobic fear. It is hard to win hearts and minds when all communication is blocked.

[Mobhack]

hmm - China (with or without say japanese and S Korean Allies) vs North Korea.

Well - the only exterior threat the NK provides is nukes (fledgeling at the moment, no certified delivery system as at present). Artillery onto S Korea, and air and the army coming out to invade.

Such an alliance really has no need to "go into" NK.

1) The air belongs to the anti-NK alliance. Check the NK AA assets, and the NK air force is not much either. The chinese air force is superior enough in quality already, to deal with NK air and AAA. then Add SK and JPN as alliance members. Russia - may join on the nuclear issue in a near neighbour, but at least will be in political opposition to NK.

2) The artillery assets can be dealt with once air control is assured.

3) the NK army is not really large enough to attack everyone, especially China (which has the worlds largest army in any case!). Any NK army adventure would therefore likely be towards SK - and would bounce the US assets there placed specifically against such a threat (no peace treaty was signed - just an armistice after the Korean war), bringing the US on-side to the alliance, if it were not there already. NK is now in opposition to 2 of the worlds "superpowers", one situated immediately next door. Maybe 3 if Russia is ticked off enough by the nuke issue to join (actively or passively) in the alliance. UN may well be persuaded to be on-side to the anti-NK grouping and provide a useful resolution or 2 to "legitimise" the deal politically. Precisely the opposite case of the Korean war (where they had CHIN and USSR on-side vs the UN forces). Hmm - NK has now allied the USA+CHIN agin them. Err - Oops..

4) NK is being hugely supported by foreign food aid. They cannot feed themselves, and it may well be that the food aid is being siphoned off to the military, with the peasants coming in way behind.

So - (assuming a military response) - Isolate the country by seige. (armies deployed on the borders, naval asets interdicting all trade, any subs dealt with by ASW assets if they venture out etc). Establish total air supremacy (remove thier air and AA assets), and then deal with any artillery assets, troop concentrations, and any suspected atomic development. As there are no civilian vehicles in NK - any moving traffic can be assumed military and so can be smacked with no "filtering" problems as in say the Balkans operations etc.

meanwhile turn the food aid off. (this response could be part of a non-military reponse).

Now - just grind them down by siege, and wait for a coup to replace the leadership with someone more conducive to a peace. If there does need to be an invasion - then the Iraq model should work. A long air campaign, then invasion only to sweep the mess up once reduced to innefectiveness.

Cheers
Andy

[whdonnelly]

Here's a twist. Following the aforementioned collapse of the North Korean regime, China, Russia, NATO, and Japan all send in ground troops to administer the north, search for WMD, whatever occupation duty is needed. South Korea suddenly feels like they are being treated like a junior partner and tells the other nations to leave Korean soil. China, with whom the border has never been settled, decides to stay. Now you have the South, the Northern remnants, maybe NATO, against everyone else.
Unlikely, ugly, but a more interesting game.
Will

[MacGalin]

Yeah, thats a cool idea... even if not very probable, id still like to see some missions in that setting...

[Marek_Tucan]

Mobhack said:
2) The artillery assets can be dealt with once air control is assured.

The problem being the arty is so numerous there that Seoul would suffer very serious damage before the guns and rockets are gone...