Average numbers
Yes I know the numbers can change, thats why I suggested a separate number for the average (current random, average #for the last 4 turns) If the current random is much different from the average you know somethings moved in/out.
But more simple approach could be, the average number resets every time the actual troop amount changes. (observer on the hill top: Damn, I think some troops left/arrived.. now I got to start over)
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