Red Army = most effective force !

[narwan]

Siddhi said:
- good point on the technolgical equipment of the dutch, as to pointing out my reversing the belgium and dutch army traints. are you sure the dutch had leo-2s as well as massed heavy IFVs in BEFORE 1985? .

Yes. Starting with the second production run (which was in 1980 I think) the dutch were getting Leo 2's. The first batches received (not a lot yet) went to the heavy recon battallions (two operational with Leo 2's in 1984). Later whole tank battallions were equiped/operational. That started in 1984 and by 1988 half the armor battallions were Leo 2's (the rest Leo 1's). While not an exact match that closely resembles the operational introduction of the T80.

By 1984 half the mech battallions had the heavy IFV, the rest a wheeled APC. By 1988 all mech battallions in the three mech infantry divisions of the dutch corps had the heavy IFV (and two of a reserve brigade aswell). Dutch recon units (of which they had a lot) also mostly employed the heavy IFV in 1984 with some lighter IFV's (M113 with 25mm gun) added.

Siddhi said:
also, again without notes in front of me, I don`t think ANY of the category A MRR regiments deployed on the IGB at that time had more then a single BN of BTRs,if that, and the BMP is a great piece of equipment, if only for it's low profile and manuverability.

In 1989 the soviet divisions still used the TO&E of 1 tank regiment, 1 bmp regiment and 2 btr regiments for the motorised rifle divisions. That includes the divisons in east germany. Add in the tank divisions whichhad no btr regiments or battallions and you end up with more or less a 50-50 spread between BTR's and BMP's. There were some reports of maybe some divisions having two bmp regiments and 1 btr regiment but I've yet to see that substantiated. Seems there weren't enough bmp's to achieve that.
No debate on the bmp being a good piece of equipment, the dutch heavy IFV is so too.

Siddhi said:
- the abilty of VII Corps (? i forget) to deploy to NORTHAG in time is seriously questionable. IIRC it would take 10 days for REFORGER to completete the first phase, the NATO Rapid Reinforcement Plan would take 30 days at least. The ability of the soviets in particular to get their units up to war strength much quicker is a very complicated debate, but in my view, true. The biggest mistake in my view is your appraisal of the political component - the ability of NATO to actually mobilise in time is by no means certain, it requires substantial political will and in RL would also require bruxelles to agree IN TOTAL for it to go ahead. In terms of "pre-emptive strikes", i think you can forget it - there is no way that such on order would be sanctioned by NATO unless there had been tensions for a long time (over a month) and enough time for political consensus to be built.

I did make reservations about the US reinforcing the north german plain myself. As I said earlier, even without them the north german plain is far from a walk over.
I also don't believe in the argument that NATO would be politically weak in replying to a soviet threat and build up. I believe that they full well realised that a weak response only calls the one thing you're trying to avoid over yourself.
You're questioning NATO's ability to mobilise, well I'm pretty sure that the WP had as much if not more problems themselves. I recall you yourself mentoning such a thing about the Hungarians a while back? The soviets would certainly need the troops of their allies in an attack so the political and mobilisational problems are not exclusive to NATO.
And such a 'pre-emptive' strike is extremely likely in my view. If there are large troop concentrations on one side of the border and aircraft with stand-off weaponry patrolling on the other side what would happen if those aircraft would light up targets on the other side with their radar (let's say anti sam missiles). I doubt the soviets would hold their fire, not all of them anyway. Only one sam needs to be fired to start a shooting war. Let's say no sam was fired. What would happen if a single NATO missile was fired (with for example the option to self destruct before hitting the target)? Now the WP troops would certainly open up. Again a shooting war with opening missiles being fired within seconds of each other with both sides accusing the other of firing first, which would happen in any case. I have a hard time not to see an air war preceding the ground war.

Siddhi said:
- on fortifications and obstacles. i have to admit this is actually one my old duties, and something i know a bit about. it short: it's all a bit different, people have spent over 50 years working on the problem, there is quite a lot of give and take - effectivly it comes down to terrain however. obstacles in the hills/mountains is one thing, the north german plain is another.

The north german plain isn't really a plain at all. It's riddled with rivers, canals and streams. There are hills, some wooded land and plenty of urban centres. And very wet ground. If it is rainy, much of the ground would get 'swampy' to swampy to be of much use to heavy vehicles. In other words, while not as good defensive terrain as further south, it still offers plenty of options to defenders.

Siddhi said:
- as to germans willing to nuke on their border: sorry, completly, irrefutably, wrong. Not even Kohl would have agreed to it, according to him, and he was by far the most aggressive.

Which is what I always thought too. With the end of the cold war not only Soviet plans started to surface. From some of these that appeared in germany it would seem the germans were in fact willing to go so far. Remember that demolition charges are very low yield with very little non local effects. They had about a dozen locations were these were called for. (If anyone can come up with some online references to these I'd be grateful since I don't have them myself).
The germans employed the strategy of forward defense (also well known). Can't do that without being ready to lay waste to that forward area... They knew that if they were succesful in that, it would/might save the area's behind from damage. In that view it makes sense.

Narwan