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thejeff said:
It's not that simple, I think.
I've had AIs who don't border me declare war and send remote attacks. Then send another remote attack later without a new declaration.
I've also had AIs I've bordered declare war, then after awhile with no conflict, declare it again. (The case I'm remembering our border was a coast, so he couldn't effectively attack me and I had other priorities.)
I think it's just some number of turns without conflict. Which is more likely if you don't share a border.
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thejeff is right... the AI can attack during the same turn as declaring war, the turn after or not declare war at all yet still attack.
After the AI declares war even if it doesn't have a neighboring province it will attack via spells for several turns. The spells might hurt population, unrest, be an attacking army or something else.
The AI is less likely to go to war if it's already battling a strong opponent and you are at equal level or higher.