Re: Results of 200 shots.
Hmmm, I'd better be clear: I only cheat against the computer!
I've never played a PBEM game let alone cheated in one, honest! (Can you do the reloading cheat thing in PBEM games?)
Anyway, I'd like to flog this one to death for those of you not yet bored of my dumb comments, as the extremes of the lucky shots still trouble me. By extremes, I mean the shots that hit with a 1% chance, as well as the shots that miss with a 99% chance.
This appears to be a deliberate decision that there are no absolutes, and it is fair enough, but I feel that even a 1 in 100 chance is too generous in many cases.
As an extreme example, a tank with an unstabilised gun is bouncing along a rough road, full tilt and taking pot shots at a sniper. With the best intentions of the gunner,the sniper is still far less than 1% of the total area that the gun might be pointing at when the trigger is pulled (even allowing for an area effect weapon, there is a lot of sky for the shell to sail off into), so a 1% hit chance is exceedingly generous, yet as long as the target is in range, this is what the game gives it.
And I see a lot of 1% to hit chances in the games I play.
So I think that the real reason we feel we witness an excess of low probability hits, is not just because they are memorable, though that is undoubtable a large part of it, but rather it is because there is an excess of low probabilty targets being offered as viable, when really they should be counted as targets at less than 1% chance of hitting and therefore be ineligible as a target.
I've got other statistical queries, but I should probably receive my beasting for this post first.
Be gentle.
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