The Bogarus Problem

[Endoperez]

cleveland said:
Starets have a 2.5% chance at F3. After recruiting them for 20 turns, you've got a solid 40% chance of landing one...about the same time you're accessing Flaming Arrows. Voi archers are 8g...

Thanks for the math. That's useful in many circumstances, and it also got me to go through some math of my own. Probabilities, exponents, logarithms... Brrr! It's been a while.