Re: Fortune telling
There are good and bad events, and rare and common events. In addition, events can be restricted so that they can only appear under spesific circumstances, e.g. only under Growth and Magic or only when unrest is above a spesific number.
I understand there are multiple versions of some events, such as plagues. A normal plague event is a rare bad event that kills population, but there is another that is common, bad and requires Death 3 scale in the province. Similarly, I think there are common bad events that cause barbarians, knights or similar to attack a province that has lots of unrest (and rare bad events that aren't restricted).
Death 3 with Misfortune is usually avoided, because it makes it much more probable to have your capital catch the plague event in the early game when it's your main source of income. There's also a nasty event that takes Growth and Magic and causes an Ancient Presence and a horde of manikins to attack a province as well as killing something like 80% of the population - it's really devastating but thankfully only rarely seen.
It was recently discovered that fortune telling ability stacks. 10 units with Fortune Telling 10 will give 100% immunity to bad events, instead of all ten having independent 10% chance of blocking a bad event (something like 50 or 60 percent chance of blocking a bad event).
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