Misfortune 3 Death 3 scale

[Squirrelloid]

Originally Posted by Gandalf Parker

My math sucks. Doesnt 10% equal 1 in 10 chance? And 5% 1 in 20 chance? How many games would I have to play to have that happen? Isnt that the definition of "high probability"? If Im looking for a game variant to play around with then having it be playable in 9 out of 10 games seems ok. Especially for something that will happen quickly if at all so that I can just start another (in solo play). Even in MP if its usable with other options and can be a surprise tactic then having it work or fail soon in the game would be a plus so that you can move on to another game.

And as an example Im not sure that indie seige is a good example for these. Both carrion and maenad can eventually break free of an indie siege. Especially since both those gods are fairly helpful in such a combat. Still not preferable, but playable.

High is a relative term. When you're talking about absolutely catastrophic events, the bar on high is pretty low.

For example, when the CERN super-collider was about to be turned on, what P(CERN creates a mini-blackhole that consumes the world) would have been too high to actually turn it on? How likely is too likely for absolutely catastrophic disaster?

Now, sure, its only a game, but I like to actually get to play the games I start. That its only a game increases my threshold for catastrophic failure tolerance, probably by a couple orders of magnitude, but as the acceptable P for the CERN scenario is somewhere in the 10^-6 or smaller range, many orders of magnitude larger is still pretty small.

So yes, i'd call 5% chance of catastrophic failure 'high', even in a game.