Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[militarist]

The idea main goal I want to reach is to measure the value of each step of luck scale, or just of each % of luck, basing on events which cause generation/loss of money/gems/items. Ignoring raiding events and other, which are impossible to compare with something.


So, our forumla is:
(number of events in EDI's DB with rarity-2)*(probability of event with rarity-2)+the same for rarity(-1,1,2)= 10% for 1 check. (based on 1 , capital province, was not tested on many provinces).

Squirellord believes that there are 4 independent checks per turn (4 is a limit of events you can have per turn). Each of them is independent from each other.

So 1 check gives 10% of event, 4 checks gave him about average 36% (24 events during 64 turns).
If we knew absolute probabilities of each rarity, or just relative probabilities of rarity-1 to rarity-2, and we expect EDI's DB to be full,
we could get probability of each specific event. Which is a 99% of the way to calculate the value of each % of luck scale.

Then we could just take a sum of all output of all events which could be measured in gems or gold (including temple loss, etc), * each of them on it's probability and we will have some sum of gems and $. Which can be used as a base for farther calculations, and will let us compare luck and order.

It would be interesting to understand mechanics, mostly to simplify some decisions in certain situations, for example - is there any sense in luck scales in rich games, or O3 is mandatory, the absolute value of some heavy events which give you a lot or take a lot from you - is it worth to take special positive scales or avoid some negative to get rid of some events or to get some events.