Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[Finalgenesis]

4 independent check sounds plausible, it would explain the 2-3 events in a single province I've observed.

For the 24 events during 64 turns data, were there any scale modifiers (turmoil, luck)? So it's game tested that 4x 10% base event occurence is about right?

I was thinking about grouping events into 4 pools: Rarity 1 good, R2 good, R1 bad, R2 bad and sum the output/loss for each pool, throw them into probability formula with base event occurence and we have an instant base output figure to play around with (I think that's what your saying also generally). Of course certain scales open and lock some events. Maybe set up an excel table to show probabilities under all scale scenarios...

Another thing I'm worried about is whether all rarity 1/2 event chance is equal, I've seen a lot more brigands or sharks event then any other rarity 1 events...

And we still need the probabilities for Rarity 1 : rarity 2 events to think about any calculations...