Quote:
Originally Posted by Soyweiser
Barb attacks happen a lot more than once every 5 turns. You also don't calculate gold upkeep costs, unrest costs, army hiring costs. Lost turns by having to constantly move armies around, pd costs. The fact that provinces are not equal, and with misf your cap has a high chance of getting hit by unrest events. (your cap is your highest income province, bad events there hit you very hard. And with only 1 province at the start guess where all the bad events go). Having forts locked down for a few turns (or even one).
If we lived in magical fairy land where all provinces are equal and there is only one bad event which are barbarians, and they only destroy population, unrest doesn't exist. You might have a point.
In real games you have unrest, your cap gets hit by bad events first. (And you always get turn 2 or 3 30 unrest events, cutting your gold income by more than 70%). There is no way you are even getting an increase in total gold after 80 turns with such a handicap at the start.
And even without that, a barb attack normally takes away 10 - 20% of the population, gives around 15 points of unrest due to the combat. (So the turn after you take it back is worth only 50% of income). You lose the province for a turn (no gold).
All the little things add up. (Turmoil also unlocks earthquakes, hurricanes, vulcanoes, rebels, lab destruction event). Not taking turmoil is the best way to increase your gold income. It is even better than taking order.
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First: why are you talking about Turmoil, when we are arguing about Order3 misf2?
We are talking about the synnergy between Order misfortune.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soyweiser
If we lived in magical fairy land where all provinces are equal and there is only one bad event which are barbarians, and they only destroy population, unrest doesn't exist. You might have a point.
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If you take unrest into account its not going to change the whole picture as much you'd still be getting more gold. If you take all the things you said into account you'd still break even by turn 80.
I can't be bothered to explain it to you now though it is really tedeous and there is a chance that you wouldn't get me.
Also I am not talking about ideal world I am generalizing. Yes you will get 1 in 10 times hit in the capital. But the rest 9/10 you won't get hit. Thats why we need the concept of generalization because if you average all your games the overall result will be the average one.(hence all provinces being the same in my example)
If we wanted to get to the end of it. I'd take many hours of calculating chances to see the overall result and to see which is better to have(and that still will be the average case).OFc you can get lucky and only have nice events and not loose a single province from a barbarian attack. Or get attacked more often. But you cannot use that as an example for general case. General case is governed by statistics I was merely trying to show you some basic calculation(which are off by quite a bit because there are as you said so many factors). But as I said My guess would be that if you manage to get 4 more provinces for the cost of 80 desing points put in misfortune provided that you have taken Order3. Then you'd be on the winning side of the deal or break even.
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