Patrolling and Unrest

[momfreeek]

I think its covered here:
http://dom3.servegame.com/wiki/User:...fect_unrest.3F

"Basically, every patroller will catch 0,5 brigand, but the graph is linear (with 30 patrollers you have the same chance to catch, say, 0, 10, 20 or 30 brigands). So, its much more random than if each patroller has 50% chance to succeed."

It also has the calculation to compare patrollers:

"Faster units are better patrollers: an unit with a tactical (battlefield) move of 20 (cavalry) count as 1,3 foot patroller. Flyers count as 2 patrollers. Some units, like the Forester (Man) have a bonus. Mindless units have a penalty."

[JonBrave]

Originally Posted by momfreeek

I think its covered here:
http://dom3.servegame.com/wiki/User:...fect_unrest.3F

"Basically, every patroller will catch 0,5 brigand, but the graph is linear (with 30 patrollers you have the same chance to catch, say, 0, 10, 20 or 30 brigands). So, its much more random than if each patroller has 50% chance to succeed."

(Excellent link BTW.) Try as a might, I still can't get this (the "linear", the 0.5 catching not being the same as 50%, basically the whole thing). Care to clarify?

[jotwebe]

Linear simply means that extreme outcomes are just as likely as middle-of-the-road ones. As opposed to something like a bell curve where the average is also the most common.

So, for example, imagine you have a bunch of 40 militia with and indy commander patrolling away on your overtaxed cap, with a destealth strength of about 50. Say taxes are 150%, so 10 points of unrest. Now your 50 points of destealth mean that up to 50 points of unrest can be patrolled away - but possibly none at all, too. You're rolling a d50.

So on any given turn, there should be a 20% chance that your actual destealth value is below 10, and unrest ensues.

That's from the manual and the wiki. Makes me wonder if having two smaller patrolling groups instead of one big one gave two rolls and so more consistent results?

Edit: ninja'd