Recruit Monty; here's my stab at making a Timeline for DAS REICH -- it's cribbed heavily from earlier attempts at making a somewhat plausible "Germany does a lot better" timeline.
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OBJECTIVE OF THIS EXERCISE:
Develop a somewhat plausible timeline that lets the Germans do better in the East without resorting to a significant amount of "handwavium".
A lot of my thinking was musing on how to make SEA LION work after reading almost halfway through a book on Switzerland in WW2 titled:
Target Switzerland: Swiss Armed Neutrality in World War 2.
The book made a good point -- many of the German conquests of 1939-41 were basically rolling the dice and then getting supremely lucky like:
A.) Taking Denmark in six hours and 200 dead through forcing the capitulation of the Danish government.
B.) France folding despite it not being hopeless -- the French military still had many units still in reserve that were unmobilized and the Armee d l'Air had MORE aircraft operational at the Armistice than they did in May 1940.
C.) Yugoslavia; a mountain country full of psychotics armed to the teeth folded in about a month.
In contrast, the Swiss General Staff said basically:
"ANY orders that say surrender or anything like that are automatically invalid whether or not they come from the federal council or general staff.
You are to fight to the last bullet and then engage in guerilla warfare if you aren't dead yet."
It made me start to think about the role that "psychological operations" played in the early German victories particularly since Europe in 1930-1941 was a very tired and sick continent still recovering from the horrors of World War I and this led into my thoughts on how to make a semi successful SEA MARMOSET.
I hit upon not having a big POD, but several medium sized ones.
1.) Churchill -- He gets hit by a Taxi and either dies or is invalided in the 1930s. He might have a good writing career in books or as a political pundit, but the injury is enough to keep him from serious political campaigning as a MP.
2.) The King -- Edward VIII never abdicates.
3.) Goering -- In the 1923 Beer Hall Putsch, he twists away at the last second, and gets injured slightly less. If you quantified the charisma and intelligence of Pre-Putsch 1923 Goering as being 100%, with Nuremberg 1945 Goering as being about 60-70%; then due to twisting away at the last second, this Goering is about 40%, compared to the 25% that occured in Real Life.
Essentially, Goering's health is improved enough that he can take a better interest in the Luftwaffe, as opposed to collecting stolen art, the social life, etc. This results in slightly improved production in both pilots and planes.
This doesn't account to much initially -- 5 or 10 extra planes a week and a few extra pilots a month, but over time, this builds up; allowing the Luftwaffe to better absorb losses from Poland and the Battle of France, so they're in a better tactical position when the Battle of Britain starts.
The Luftwaffe doesn't decisively *win* the Battle of Britain, but they get to a point where Sea Marmoset appears somewhat feasible to execute in the eyes of staff planners.
Additionally, because Churchill's been out of the political picture, there's no incredibly brutal sinking of the French fleet, so this means the Royal Navy has to entertain the POSSIBILITY of French Vichy units assisting the Kriegsmarine, complicating their planning for defeating a German invasion.
So, Sea Marmoset opens about September to October 1940, with mass Fallschirmjaeger landings in Southern England; and these landings go about as well as Crete did in real life -- 60% to 70% or more casualties in certain subunits in 7 Flieger Division and a 40% casualty rate for the division as a whole.
It's horrifically bloody, but they manage to secure at least one harbor in Southern England, enabling follow on sea-based reinforcements.
So...you've got the Kriegsmarine and (maybe) the Vichy French Navy battling it out in the Channel, while the Luftwaffe can seize air superiority over Southern England enough of the time to attrit the RAF, when the RAF comes to bomb the German landing areas.
Up in London, there's no Sir Winston drinking brandy and issuing speeches like "we will fight on the beaches, from the rooftops, etc..." backed up by the implacable George VI; so the political elite of England are wavering.
As emphasized by
Target Switzerland: Swiss Armed Neutrality in World War 2, the Germans never really quite defeated everyone except Poland -- they always got K.O. rulings by the Judge when the ruling
elite capitulated early -- until of course.... RUSSIA.
Eventually, the political pressure gets to be too much and the British fold their cards like the others have so far in WWII -- asking for an Armistice.
The deal is -- Britain basically recognizes the
New Order in Europe and lifts the blockade on Germany in exchange for the New Order not messing with the British Empire.
Inside Britain, you'd see the fascist parties regroup after their prominent members (Mosley, etc) are let out of prison, and they'd maybe get a few MPs in parliament due to the 'Bandwagon effect'.
Over in the Soviet Union; Stalin is going
oh ****, and frantically redoubling his efforts to regenerate the Red Army following the Purges; but he did too much; good operations officers, etc don't grow on trees.
Following the Armistice with Britain that ended the European War of 1939-40, it's possible that Hitler, prodded by the Kreigsmarine, begins negotiations with France and the Netherlands over a formal lightening of the occupation -- "gee, we'd like to withdraw from your countries, but you know, we need something a little...extra."
So at least one major island in the Dutch East Indies chain is basically a German Colony now; along with possibly parts of Indochina?
The new German colonies in Asia; along with the added influence of the Germans in the region -- "look, you really do want to sell oil to the Japanese. No really. You DO want to. It would be a shame if we expanded our holdings..." can end up postponing the Japanese-American Pacific War until maybe 1942-43, due to Japan getting an independent source of raw materials that bypasses the American Embargo.
Japan's kicking off of the Pacific War could be due to them doing the calculations on fleet sizes:
Third Vinson Act -- June 14, 1940
Two Ocean Navy Bill -- July 19, 1940
Those two bills passed in Our TimeLine (OTL) in the Summer of 1940 following the fall of France (but before the Battle of Britain) basically authorized through simple tonnage:
10 x Fleet Carriers
9 x Battleships
37 x Cruisers (approx average of CA/CL tonnage)
61 x Submarines
125 x Destroyers
Once Britain signs an Armistice, the US is going to be going
holy **** even more than Stalin is. You might see a
Fourth Vinson Act signed; adding possibly:
3 to 4 x Fleet CV
4 x Battleships
15 x Cruisers
20 x Submarines
60 x Destroyers
to the US fleet by 1945.
[ED NOTE: An enormous amount of industrial capacity was consumed by the Destroyer Escort and Liberty/Victory Ship building program; if you don't have these, it's possible for all this to be built by '44-45]
That means...Japan is simply outbuilt massively in Naval strength by 1944-45; so their only option is to...STRIKE FAST before the US can bring online all these new ships.
However, they need raw materials; so from 1940-1941 there is a constant battle within the Japanese hierarchy over "do we have enough stockpiled materials from the
New Order in Europe?" and "We must strike now before the Americans grow strong!".
Eventually, the "STRIKE" group gets ascendant and they strike in 1942.
EDIT: More to be done later.