Scenario: WW3: Dutch interception

[SaS TrooP]

OK, here comes a second scenario from WW3 and last one from the Dutch side.

In "World War 3" series I will take a look at possible Russian 2020 invasion of Europe. Europe is currently ill-prepared for any kind of war, what could give Russians an edge if they will keep upgrading as they do. Many of those scenarios will have special victory conditions relying on casualties you take.

And all of them will involve only real life units recreated after as detailed OOBs as I can.

This time Dutch motorized brigade protects Patriot missiles and counters surprising Russian move.

Enjoy!

[RetLT]

Fun scenario. I got a 4:1 MV after losing one of the Patriot batteries. You have to keep them moving to avoid arty fire.

Very rough AAA environment for both sides.

[Aeraaa]

First 10 turns:

Turns 1-5. The biggest dilemma is what to do with the Patriots. I finally decide to keep them on map for a bit, knock out an aircraft or two (hopefully) and retreat off map. The first Russian units appear before a recon screen deployed near the woods south of the settlement of Jamel, as well as the road south of the woods. I count 7 T72B3s and two companies worth of BMP-3s. My ATGMs knock out 4 BTRs and 2 BMP-3s, but tank and auto cannon fire knock out one AT team. My 120mm mortars start shelling the Russian formations as well, causing disruption. After the complete their fire mission, I will displace them as I decide to do more shoot and scoot this time.
In Jamel (which is defended by a single recon platoon) my scouts knock out 2 BMP-3s, but lose 2 Fenneks and a third one is immobilized (soon to be knocked out). I try to pull away one scout team, I lose one and the remaining two are in very difficult situation.
North to that, Russians also advance against Hokendorf. My recon screen proves unable to slow down the advance of the leading tanks (6 spotted) as their active protection and ERA saves them from Spike strikes. I lose a Spike team and 1 Fennek and pull back whoever I can.
The first reinforcements arrive, two companies of mechanized infantry in the southern flank at Nachsendorf. My plan is to send one of them forward (the 1/17th company) to try to flank the Russians and hopefully seize Gresow. I keep the other company in reserve near their assembly point.
Finally, the recon reserve at the left of the map is sent towards Hokendorf, with the aim of supporting the defenders there.

Estimated points lost: 1022 going relatively well, but the Russians are hardly scratched yet (I estimate at least 2214 points lost though)

Turns 6-10
Russian attack on the south seems to split. A detachment tries to seize the southern road, while most of the forces dash towards Jamel and I assume that they will go towards Barendorf afterwards. Jamel is lost anyway, with just two scout teams remaining and one Fennek. The southern detachment is ambushed by a Rifle Squad, losing 2 BMP-3s and 2 T-72s. Meanwhile, about 800 meters from Barendorf, two ATGM teams waste all their ammo on one T72 to no effect (geez, not a single top hit from a top attack ATGM!) Also, 2/17th company is also tasked with reinforcing Barendorf but they are further than the Russians (although with faster vehicles).
Against Hokendorf, Russians also advance more slowly, but with no casualties. I decide to use my airstrikes against their armor. The airstrikes prove devastating, destroying 2 T72s and 5 BMP-3s and an unknown number of infantry. Despite this, the Russian advance, reaching the small village.
2/17th, which as I’ve mentioned before as rushing towards Barendorf, encounters a lone BRDM-3 south of its objective, which destroys an APC and the rifle squad it carries. I dismount a rifle squad and 2 Spike ATGMs to deal with it, and I see that the Russians have also sent 3 T72s and BMP-3s, probably from the recently occupied Jamel. The Spikes destroy the BRDM and I decide to delay the other elements with the forces I deployed, while the rest of the company will move towards its objective using the woods as cover.
1/42nd rifle company deploys to Waldeck. This is a second line town, but I feel the need to leave a garrison there.
2/42nd rifle company is sent to the north to set up a defensive line north of Dreilinden (a town housing the Brigade HQ).
1/17th Infantry continues to move towards the Russian right flank. The Bushmaster vehicles that act as scouts come under fire from a T-72. The path to the objective is guarded, so I decide to put the amphibious capabilities of my vehicles to the test and continue via Tressower See. I deploy the scouts and a couple of ATGMs to overwatch the crossing and I spot 1 OSA-AKM (they fired on my aircraft and my Chinooks before to no effect). This is a sweet target that I’ll hit in the next turn.
Finally, the first Russian helos appear and receive a barrage of my deployed Patriots. One Hind is shot down, while the other retreats off map. My luck vs. helos continues.

[Aeraaa]

Turns 11-15
Barendorf is in the eye of the storm now, as Russians seem to really want to capture this village which is attacked from the north, the west and after the armored forces manage to seriously batter the 2/17th company, from the southern highway as well. Nevertheless, this small village proves quite costly to the Russians, who lose 2 tanks, 7 IFVs and 1 APC and just barely manage to capture the northern flag. 2/42nd is also heading towards Barendorf.
In Hokendorf, Russians do manage to capture the objective, at the cost of 7 tanks and numerous APCs, but they didn’t clear out all the infantry there and there is a chance of recapturing it. Air strikes and the helos that came as reinforcements were the major tank busters there.
1/17th crosses the Tressower under the cover of Spike ATGMs. The latter knock out an OSA-AKM and 4 BMP-3s in total.
Despite trying my best to relocate the Patriots, I do lose one from an artillery strike (Russian artillery has excellent response times, I must say). 900 points down the drain, which is quite a painful loss. So, I decide to withdraw them off map. AA defense will be much worse, but I presume that after I knock out most of the Russian tanks, I can stay mainly with dismounts and minimize casualties in case Russians bring in more air power.

Turns 16-20
Barendorf turns into a mini Grozny, where Russian vehicles perish and infantry proves incapable of helping it. Nevertheless, Russians capture all but one objective, without doing much damage to the infantry in the city though, that can still counterattack and take the objectives back.
I send the Apaches on a raid behind the enemy lines and they absolutely massacre Russian artillery. 16 Akatsiya 152mm SPGs and 4 Vasilek mortars are destroyed. Equally successful are the men of 1/17th who, being in the rear of the Russian formations now, destroy 3 more Basileks and are ready to occupy the undefended Gresow.
Russian attention has turned south as well. The valiant platoon holding the intersection on the southern highway is eliminated by a combination of tanks, infantry and engineers. Russians try to attack the next intersection directly south of Barendorf (that is also an objective) but engineer ambushes and ATGMs turn 3 tanks and 2 SPAAGs into scrap metal. Nevertheless, more Russian forces in the form of a couple of tanks and 3 BMPs, as well as an unknown number of infantry dash south. When I’m done with the artillery, I’ll probably send my helos over there.
Finally, fixed wing aircraft have appeared and cause casualties to my troops. I need to be extra careful now.
Total number of points lost about 6000 now. I didn’t estimate Russian casualties, but they lost about 20 tanksm 30 IFVs and a ton of artillery, so I guess I’m well in the marginal victory range but I need to counterattack to reclaim lost objectives.

[Aeraaa]

Turns 21-30
Russians keep throwing men and machines at Barendorf, to little effect. The Russian air force continues to destroy my APCs, but they do little other to my forces. I lose one Apache to a BMP-3 and one Chinook to a T72 when it landed in clear line of site. counterattack with infantry and recon forces and occupy most objectives, save one at the south of Barendorf. The result is marginal victory with 8321 total points lost as you can see in the screen below. So victory!




What helped me win was the constant movement of units, which made artillery barrages less successful (though they did manage to hit one Patriot). In addition, transporting ammo trucks with Chinooks to rearm ATGMs was also crucial. The Patriots themselves did not stay in the battlefield for long, but they did manage to drive away the Russian attack helos when they showed up. Maybe I should’ve kept them a bit longer to fight the fixed wing aircraft when they appeared, but I got a bit panicked when I saw my precious AA get bombarded. Helos were very valuable, since they wiped out the Russian artillery and also knocked out several tanks (in total Russians lost 25 tanks). The Russian T72B3M/B4s proved very resilient, needing several ATGM s fired at them to remove the active defenses and even then, the ERA and thick frontal armor (for some reason I didn’t score many top hits) helped them greatly.

[IronDuke99]

You could make a strong case that Russian military doctrine has not changed all that much in a very long time: Use a lot of men, use relatively simple weapons, but in large numbers. Have as large a force of supporting artillery as you can.

The crucial questions today v a Western Force, especially if it is trying to fight in Russia's 'back yard': Who wins air superiority? (Lots of Russians or smaller numbers of, more or less, more advanced Western fighters)?

Strongly related to the above, do advanced Russian SAM's and other AAA drive off Western Air sooner rather than later? Or do Western aircraft, etc take them out?

Without overwhelming air support how do Western Forces counter very heavy Russian artillery support?

Other things (see above) being equal I would like to think that the best Western troops would beat the Russians in a defensive battle at about 2-3 to 1 against and would certainly support the British Army at those odds v any likely potential enemy (yep I am a patriotic, if informed, type). Offensive battle against the likes of Russia, close to Russia, in my view, with current forces, not something I would like to do at all.

Final point why fight Russia? She is not capable of, or aiming to, reach the English channel any more. She presents no real threat to Western Europe, although she wants,legitimately enough, influence in her own back yard, including the Baltic States and Ukraine.

As for the Middle East, the Rise of the so called 'Islamic State' and the generally baleful influence of Saudi Arabia in the world lead me to think of 'the pot calling the kettle black' in terms of US v Russian policy in that region.

[Aeraaa]

Tbh, if a Russian commander IRL performed as badly as the AI in this scenario, I think he'll be relieved of his command yesterday. Sending vehicles inside urban environment stripped of infantry, not putting any AA defense near its valuable artillery assets...the list can go on and on. Imagine that I had one engineer company (-) and two mechanized infantry companies that stayed in reserve and did not participate in battle. The AI did far better in the other Dutch scenario, for two reasons a)it had lots of attack helos and b) I was lazy and did not move my tanks. In this one, where I knew I was outgunned since I only had a light motorized brigade, I played much more intelligently and this is evident in the final result.
Let's just say that against a human opponent the Dutch would be in a world of hurt and would definitely have their formation out of action, even if they manage to repulse the attack. And that is what I believe would happen IRL more or less.