Scenario: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States

[wulfir]

This could be interesting form a scenario making perspective as a possible what-if:



Capturing the Baltic states within a week
According to the two sources, Kremlin forces rehearsed capturing NATO’s “region of vulnerability, according to the Russian view”, namely the three Baltic states. “To realize this, you would have to quickly do the Suwalki gap operation” in order to cut off Poland and NATO reinforcements from Lithuania. This is exactly what Russia did, creating the artificial state of “Veyshnoria” at the exact location of the 40-kilometre land bridge between Poland and Lithuania (carried out on Belarussian territory, however).

At the same time, Russia rehearsed “neutralizing or taking under control air fields and harbours (in the Baltic states), so there are no reinforcements arriving from other NATO states there”. The sources emphasized that, in the case of an emergency, this would, in the first few days, be a purely military operation. “This does not mean that you have to occupy the countries and declare ‘Peoples’ Republics’ or something like that, but that you have to occupy the harbours, airports and so on”.

source:
http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/b...3658.bild.html

[shahadi]

Is the article reporting (bild.de) that attacks on German, Polish, Norwegian, and Swedish targets are part of the initial operation to sieze harbours, airports,and the like, or are those attacks in response to NATO getting involved after the initial operation to control the Baltic states?

[shahadi]

The article (bild.de) assets the recent Russian exercises not as a grab for the Baltic states, but rather as a strike against NATO. Furthermore, the attacks on Germany, Poland, Norway, and the other countries mentioned are bombing targets and missile strikes, nothing about seizing territory. Troubling.

If Putin wanted the Baltics, then taking control of harbors, airfields, etc would not require striking other NATO countries. I dare say, strikes on Poland or Sweden and Norway would plunge into WWW3. While taking control of methods of ingress (Baltics) would suffice with a lower chance of a military NATO response.

BTW, has anyone read of the number of heavy armor formations in the Baltics, and has America stationed an additional carrier strike group in the Baltic sea?

Great read and excellent post.

[wulfir]

Myself I'm not convinced the Russians are really ready to take the plunge, but there is enough stuff going on to make what-if scenarios that would not be too far fetched IMO(and some have already been made, like Grant1pa's Norwegian/Finnish ones )

The Norwegian Home Guard base near Trondheim that houses the Marine rotational force was the first stop on Gen. Robert Neller's annual Christmas tour.

The stop was a new one for the tour. The first Norway rotation, from 1st Battalion, 2nd Marines, deployed in January and was replaced by a new unit from 2nd Battalion, 2nd Marines, in late August.

Neller emphasized to the Marines that they should remain ready to fight at all times, predicting a "big-*** fight" on the horizon.

"I hope I'm wrong, but there's a war coming," Neller said. " ... You're in a fight here, an informational fight, a political fight, by your presence."

Neller later told the Marines that he expects the Pacific and Russia to be the service's operational points of focus as the nation looks beyond the fights in the Middle East that have stretched into the better part of two decades.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/...mpression=true

[shahadi]

Originally Posted by wulfir

Myself I'm not convinced the Russians are really ready to take the plunge, but there is enough stuff going on to make what-if scenarios that would not be too far fetched IMO(and some have already been made, like Grant1pa's Norwegian/Finnish ones )

Yeah, I think you're right,"...there is enough stuff going on..." and the context is right for scenarios.

I also noted that Sargent Major Green holds a masters in Cybersecurity Policy from the University of Maryland University College. And, that the article (military.com) refers to the recently released National Security Strategy wherein the document discussed Russia's practice of "using information tools" to interfere with other nations' democracies and militant aggression that crosses borders.

[shahadi]

Could Poland's Tanks Stop Russia in a War?
(Gao, Johnny, Nationalinterest.org, 23 March 2018)

A very good article.

A commentator made the following comment: "Forget Russia, its payback time! How about Poland v Germany?"
Tongue in cheek, hopefully.

However, another commentor raised my eyebrow with the following: "...Pols are Slav and there is no way any real Russian will attack them." Wow, sounds like a Russian troll.