Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[Squirrelloid]

Oh, we can totally figure this out, or at least propose models consistent with data. But for that we need data!

[thejeff]

In my test, I didn't start with full dominion, so there is likely some lag, but did have dom10 and had used the map file to put a temple in every province, so it spread fast.

I can run more turns tonight. I was originally looking for province clustering not just numbers, so I had to actually check each event. Just getting the number of events will be faster.

[Finalgenesis]

Could there also be a cap on number of province affecting event generation frequency? After all, with only 1 province, you definitely see less then 34 events in 10 turns (from play observation not actual testing). Perhaps once you hit 10-20 provinces, any additional provinces no longer impact your event frequency.

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by Finalgenesis

Could there also be a cap on number of province affecting event generation frequency? After all, with only 1 province, you definitely see less then 34 events in 10 turns (from play observation not actual testing). Perhaps once you hit 10-20 provinces, any additional provinces no longer impact your event frequency.

I specifically chose 4 territories, so that if their was some kind of limit of only 1 P(e) event could be checked per province, that there would be enough provinces so that all 4
P(e) events could be expressed.

I am saying, and I think the evidence bears this out, that P(e) is not a function of the number of provinces.

By the way, the event table strongly suggests that if you have turmoil scales expressed in a province, that can be worthwhile to garrison troops in the province. The cost of the garrison is
is less than the likely cost of the barbarian events. Even better of course is to increase pd to a point where you dont need to worry about it - however that falls to gameplay, and the value of capital questions.

[thejeff]

Wait, those numbers don't make sense.
34 events in 10 turns as the low end?
Averaging more than 3/turn?

In my test, I got 1 4 event turn and many 2 event turns.

If you're getting that many with neutral scales, something else is going on.

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by thejeff

Wait, those numbers don't make sense.
34 events in 10 turns as the low end?
Averaging more than 3/turn?

In my test, I got 1 4 event turn and many 2 event turns.

If you're getting that many with neutral scales, something else is going on.

I'm dealing with 4 nations, each with 4 provinces, at the low end. And 4 nations, each with 8 provinces at the high end.

And yes, the numbers dont' make sense if you think events are a function of # of provinces. I don't think that.

[thejeff]

Originally Posted by chrispedersen

I'm dealing with 4 nations, each with 4 provinces, at the low end. And 4 nations, each with 8 provinces at the high end.

And yes, the numbers dont' make sense if you think events are a function of # of provinces. I don't think that.

Oh, 34 events over 4 nations. 8-9 events/nation over 10 turns. That fits my expectations a lot better.

[militarist]

One of ways to check is number of possible events affects total number of events a player will have can be done by comparing 2 builds - one with magic2, another with magic or or drain1. Magic adds a lot of events.Luck1 also add events.

If it amount of event's doesn't depend on province count, then what...If you have capital with good luck scales /dominion and conquered a province, your overall luck becomes lower until luck scale in that province achieves the level you had in capital?

[chrispedersen]

Militarist: my last test had four nations

Two with 0 luck
one with +3 luck
one with -3 luck

My next test (date uncertain) will be

Two nations with 0 order
one nation with 3 order
one nation with 3 turmoil

I suspect that this will show reduced events for the +3 order, and increased events for the turmoil.

now, for the +0 nations, 94% of the time, either 0 or 1 event occured. I don't think that any P(eip) results could surpress P(e) that much. Could be wrong.

for the luck nations +/-3 it clearly resulted in more luck events. The number of zero events was pretty constant at 20%.

[thejeff]

Just another complication to add to the question:

How do events in independent provinces fit into this?