Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[thejeff]

I knew I'd seen something somewhere, but it didn't seem to be linked anywhere.
I didn't think to look in the obvious place for any documentation, Edi's signature.

Thanks.

And thanks Edi for putting it together.

[militarist]

http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/showthread.php?t=45185

[Finalgenesis]

Don't brigand / shark event seem a lot more prevalent then other events of the same frequency mask (in Edi's event list)? hmmm... observor bias?

[chrispedersen]

No.

You're probably playing with scales that allow the brigands/sharks to occur more regulary.

I get barbarians all the time, because I prefer sloth.

[Lingchih]

Odd events testing the latest True Firebird in the latest EDM test.

First two turns, while it sat in the cap, good events.

Next three turns, no events in the cap.

Next turn, moved it out of the cap, and got a good event in the prov where I sent it.

Next turn, moved it back into the cap. No events.

Next two turns, while it sat in the cap, no events.

This is all based on a luck 1 scale.

My only conclusion from all this, is that your luck taps out after a few turns, or perhaps more, due to the vagaries of the Dom3 random number generator.

*An interesting side note. (RNG) is apparently forbidden on the forums. I had to spell out the full name to get it through the filter.

[chrispedersen]

Thats hardly surprising Ling....
P(e) is probably betweeen 10-20. Thats before event masks for the territory.

Go with a lady of fortune, luck 1, order three you will still see LOTS of turns without luck events.

[thejeff]

I finally had a chance to come back to this and run a few more tests:
Looking at the relationship between number of provinces and number of events

T3L3 Dom10 pretender over 30 turns
2 provinces:
Nation1: 39
Nation2: 39

30 provinces:
Nation1: 57
Nation2: 54

300 provinces:
Nation1: 66
Nation2: 62


That looks strongly to me like number of provinces matters, especially on the low end.

[Finalgenesis]

Thanks for the data TJ

Oh here's a Void summon data for Ryleth lovers, (definitely not enough turns to conclude on anything):

MA Ryleth over 30 turns
a) only summoner(3) is used, priest replaced on lvlup
b) Summon begins on 3rd turn
test 1: 1 order 3 luck 3 magic 3 growth 3 cold
test 2: 3 hot, all other baseline

Test 1: 8 success, 15 spawns total
Test 2: 7 success, 11 spawns total

I can post spawn types on request.

Quality of spawn shows no correlation, all over the place. High summon skill seems to be most important in determining quality. Scales don't seem to have a noticable impact on void summon base on this tiny testing population.

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by thejeff

I finally had a chance to come back to this and run a few more tests:
Looking at the relationship between number of provinces and number of events

T3L3 Dom10 pretender over 30 turns
2 provinces:
Nation1: 39
Nation2: 39

30 provinces:
Nation1: 57
Nation2: 54

300 provinces:
Nation1: 66
Nation2: 62


That looks strongly to me like number of provinces matters, especially on the low end.

I don't see how you can say this. I wish you had done 50 turns, so we could directly compare with my results. However adding 2/3 the events (30 turns * 2/3 = 50 turns) gives you 62 events on your size two nations - which is *more* than my size 4 nations, by about 5.

Also how did you start with 300 province nations? (starting methodology matters)

Finally, you went from 30 provinces to 300 provinces a factor of 10 increase, and only got an 18% increase in the number of events.

This suggests pretty strongly to me that it *isn't* a matter of of f(#). It looks to me like it is merely that with more provinces, that you will run into more provinces with bigger province terrain masks.

Interesting test would be to dump 10 lady of fortunes in a province and see what happens.

[thejeff]

I was using T3L3, largely because that's what I used on my earlier 300 province test. That does mean it's not directly comparable to your tests.

In both the 30 & 300 province tests, I used map commands to assign provinces to both nations and to put a temple in every province. That's the fastest way I could think of to boost dominion and scales with it. If you can think of a faster way, I'd love to hear it. Events seem to be scarcest in the first 10 turns or so. I'd like to see if that's just scale spreading or something more hardcoded. I think there are a handful of events restricted in the first few turns, but I didn't think it would be that big an effect.

I don't think that more provinces with bigger province terrain masks makes sense. At least not if we're still thinking you start by picking 0 to 4 provinces and checking for events in them. I could see that having a large effect in the small tests, where you might have a province with (terrain/population?) that restricts many events. But scales should have been similar in most provinces and those unlock the largest number of events right?

I suppose I could try modifying a map to have only one terrain type and rerun them against that, but it doesn't seem very useful.

The province number effect is obviously not linear and I don't have an idea for how it's generated, but I'm not sure how I can demonstrate it more clearly.