Query for Don and Andy.

[FASTBOAT TOUGH]

I've actually seen interviews where the Ukrainian Gov't have acknowledged causalities at over +20K.

Everyone has a cell phone and in regard to I believe "STARLINK" Elon Musk he'll continue to eat the 20 million a month and keep the system up. We would call it a business expense he can use as a tax deduction for SpaceX.

I gotta get something else posted elsewhere-Good Night!!

Regards,
Pat

[Akmatov]

Originally Posted by Suhiir

What is surprising is that it took so long for the politicians to realize it was a lost cause.

Sometime as soon as the word Vietnam is mentioned it seems to me most ppl side slip into an alternate socialist & media created universe. The US military won in Vietnam, they stopped the North Vietnamese invasion and forced the North Vietnamese to the sign the Paris Peace Accords, thus bring the war to an end by the standards of the civilized world. The US military was then withdrawn, and North Vietnam launched a conventional attack, which the South Vietnamese repelled. The North Vietnamese retreated, reorganized and absorbed massive further imports of weapons from the Soviet Union and then launched a further attack. The US Senate then voted to deny South Vietnam the munitions they requested to continue resisting the North Vietnamese invasion. Lacking things like ammunition South Vietnamese units collapsed lacking the munitions the US Senate had denied them. And then the slaughter began. For example, I understand the Montanard, the original inhabitants of Vietnam before the Viet invaded, were almost exterminated. Much of the discussion here has been about political and media creation of perceived truth regarding Ukraine, look a little into the past. OUT

[Karagin]

Also, we are being fed what one side wants us to see about the current war. The media is doing a fantastic job of selling the current war from the chosen side. We are not getting any impartial media reporting on anything related to that, so really, are we even getting any honest facts?

One reason we should wait until things end and then figure it out, but I know, I know folks want to have sides.

[MarkSheppard]

Originally Posted by Karagin

Also, we are being fed what one side wants us to see about the current war. The media is doing a fantastic job of selling the current war from the chosen side. We are not getting any impartial media reporting on anything related to that, so really, are we even getting any honest facts?

That's the thing. It's 2022, not 1991.

We've got enough commercial satellites flying overhead that for example:

1.) We can get 1980s Cold War equivalent Spy Sat Imagery of a Russian Airfield a few days after a claimed Ukrainian Drone Attack. Results: Huge scorch marks near the airfield, and no airplanes (i.e. Tu-22M3s) of importance on the airfield, or aircraft wrecks -- indicating a failed attack.

2.) We can get overhead sat imagery of the Crimean Kerch Bridge a few days after the attack.

Plus, there's all the videos and pictures that everyone has been uploading since FEB 2022 on social media accounts:

Oryx has legitimately visually confirmed Russian tank losses:



But yes, Ukraine has done a better job of managing social media Information Operations -- casualties in Ukraine are high -- at least 15,000~ dead or so - maybe higher -- but it gets lost in the noise of Russian casualties.

[Karagin]

You are missing the point. Everything coming out of the region is suspect because it's not vetted to remove a bias, and it's not being presented as fact. Anything from a Ukraine POV will show their side as excellent, and the same for the Russian side.

The same token from the Western (aka European and US) POV since many of those nations have already picked sides.

We can get all the information and collect all the data, but until it's done so in a manner to remove any personal dislike of either side, we will not have a factual account of the events. And telling me that social media is factual is insane.

[MarkSheppard]

Originally Posted by Karagin

We can get all the information and collect all the data, but until it's done so in a manner to remove any personal dislike of either side, we will not have a factual account of the events. And telling me that social media is factual is insane.

You can get an amazing amount of information if you have a good "bs" detector going on.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1583771154749087746

"DefMon" looked at a map to see where RU logistics might move out of HIMARS range and then ordered satellite images of those locations and got some hits.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1...561088/photo/1

This is imagery that used to be the province of nation-states, and now an average joe can order the images for a couple hundred bucks.

Imagine what the imagery an actual nation-state like say, Vietnam, can order now with a open checkbook.

[MarkSheppard]

There's also some propaganda regarding the "Wagner Line"

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1583842594454646785

It appears that the concrete "Dragon's Teeth" that Wagner forces are placing to form the "Wagner Line" are hollow or open at the bottom, because you can fit a lot of them onto a moderately sized medium truck.

A lot of people on Social media are going "hahah lol", but I'm more nuanced.

The name of the game is area denial. Sure, they may too light and not dug into the ground enough to stop a T-72, but they'll stop a lot of other stuff, and they're too heavy at a minimum to move without specialized equipment.

In other words, they'll stop / deter Ukrainian raiding columns composed of Humvees and other light vehicles.

[MarkSheppard]

But we got sidetracked.

Back to the Original Post (OP):

In light of the, what I would call odd performance of the Russian military, in Ukraine is there a consideration of readjusting the various attributes of the Russians with in the game engine?

I think that:

February-March 2022 Russian EXP/MOR values in light with what we had before 2022 in the game engine. This represents the initial "core" of experienced troops that Russia had, and with which they made those big gains initially.

Unfortunately for Russia, those initial units were the best that they had -- the ones who gundecked training reports the least -- and they got chewed up pretty bad in trying to achieve/achieve their objectives.

April-May 2022 onwards Russian EXP/MOR values start to decline from this point onwards, reflecting heavy casualties and the increasing use of previous "parade" units which doctored readiness reports to their superiors.

How bad the decline in EXP/MOR is, and when it "falls off a cliff" into irrecoverability...is something that's going to have to wait until about 2024 or so to get a solid lock on, since everything is still fluid.

EDIT: I'd like to say, this is a relatively new thing for us; because even way back in the 1980s, when Gary Grigsby was programming TYPHOON OF STEEL, the prior version of Steel Panthers (see attachment to see what I mean): WWII had been over for 40~ years at that point, and there had been at least 20~ years of wargaming "agreement" on the rough point values to assign for Morale, etc at various points during WW2.

[Karagin]

Are any of us in the TOCs and command posts to verify this? Or do we trust that what we are being told is honest? Are you telling me that footage uploaded to a social media account is vetted?

War is deception, and that hasn't changed.

[Suhiir]

Originally Posted by Karagin

War is deception, and that hasn't changed.

So true.