[OT] Another heated discussion about the Iraq siutation, war and politics.

[Unknown_Enemy]

U.S. Builds Proliferation Case Against Pakistan

Summary

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has called U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell to seek clarification on new sanctions that were levied against a Pakistani nuclear research institute, which is accused of buying North Korean No Dong missiles and selling nuclear technology to Pyongyang. Details of the accusation made by a "senior" U.S. administration official, cited by the Washington Times on March 31, have technical inconsistencies, however. Given the timing of the sanctions, it appears elements of the Bush administration are trying to paint Pakistan and North Korea with the same brush -- laying the groundwork for potential action against both nations in the post-Iraq war era.

Analysis

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has called U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell after word emerged that the United States has levied sanctions against Pakistan's Kahuta Research Laboratories (KRL). The sanctions were triggered by the alleged transfer of nuclear technology to North Korea and also are related to the alleged purchase of three to six complete North Korean No Dong ballistic missiles. Pakistan has denied both charges.
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Though in reality the sanctions themselves do little -- KRL does not trade with U.S. companies anyway -- the political impact is already being felt. And by raising the issue of Pakistani participation in North Korea's nuclear program both directly and through arms purchases, it is evident that there are at least some elements in the U.S. administration intent on ensuring that Pakistan is clearly linked to the North Korean issue.

With Pakistan already closely monitored for its possible role in harboring al Qaeda and Taliban members, there is an apparent movement in Washington to define the post-Iraq U.S. strategy as simultaneous confrontations with Pakistan and North Korea.

This report is from WWW.STRATFOR.COM, if you want the full thing, just buy a subscription.

[Aloofi]

Originally posted by Atrocities:
Someone should take all of the Posts in this thread and save them as a historical referance. Think about it, for one of the first times in history, our comments about CURRENT events can be saved and passed down for eons to come.

Dang right!
This are my comments:
1- The Taliban is going to retake Afghanistan.
2- Al Qaeda will WMD at least one city in the US.
3- North Korea, oh well, hard to predict their next move. But I would bet my bottom dollar that China is behind them. I can't imagine those little pricks upsetting the Empire without the approval of uncle Red.
4- Irak, this is the hardest to see. My guess is Saddam will survive somehow, and the war will extend at least into the next year. I don't think the Iraki army can defeat the US, cause even if they do then next year a new US army of 3 millions instead of 300 thousands would be riding on Baghdad.
The worst thing about the Iraki war is that it have become obvious that a country without nukes AND ICBMs is easy pick for the big fishes. I don't like the message this is sending to the Arab world, because you have to realize that is just a matter of time until they get nukes. Doesn't matter how far ahead the west is, the 3rd world will catch up, whether in 5 or 50 years.

Besides, our greatest weakness is not open war, but terrorism, and they know that. The worst thing I see about terrorism is that unlike in regular warfare, in terrorism weapons never become obsolete. A WW2 vintage 80mm mortar or an M1 Garand will never be obsolete for terrorist use. Especially for suicidal terrorist use. So I can see the war on terror Lasting ages.....

[geoschmo]

Originally posted by tesco samoa:
u know i think that the Iraqi army is staying back for the reason that when this new 'democracy' comes they can take part in their 'slice'.

So far the price of this 'democracy' is a few thousand civilans dead, wounded or missing.

That is a fact.

The coalition made it clear from the start they wouldn't mind if the Iraqi Regular army and Republican Guard soldiers simply left their units and went home. The intention was always to destroy the regime from the top down as much as possible.

At this early stage there are very few "facts" available, but if you count the wounded civilians then a few thousand is a very realistic expectation. Of course every innocent casualty is tragic, but when the dust clears and some independant verification is possible I believe that the numbers of civilian dead will be astoundingly low considering the level of conflict that has taken place.

Geoschmo

[tesco samoa]

hey geo is that you at dailykos ???

[geoschmo]

Originally posted by tesco samoa:
hey geo is that you at dailykos ???

Gotta go somewhere when Shrapnel is down.

Geoschmo

[Atrocities]

If any one is interested, if Shrapnel goes down, try out Fyrons Forums as they are a great alternative site. I mean that. They look great, and he is always adding new things. check out his instant Graemlins selection.

[ April 09, 2003, 16:32: Message edited by: Atrocities ]

[dogscoff]

Increased military presence? Increased financial aid? Leave them alone and see what happens? What would you do if you were suddenly given the authority to decide what to do in Afghanistan?

I'd like to quote a fantastic pair of UK comics you may have heard of called Fry and Laurie. I first heard them perform the following song about 10 years ago in a Texan accent and I think it sums up Bush's attitude quite nicely...

Well, the world is facing problems getting bigger every day,
They've got a greenhouse over Texas and recession's on the way,
Although people tell you that this planet's dying fast,
Well, I ain't seen a problem yet can't be solved by kicking ***.

Kickin' ***, (KICKIN AY-***)
Kickin' *** is what we do,
Kickin' ***, (KICKIN AY-***)
Iron foot in the velvet shoe.
We don't care whose *** we kick, if we're ever all alone,
We just stand in front of the mirror, and try and kick our own.

Well, we kicked *** in Grenada and we kicked *** in Iraq,
We kicked the *** out of the ozone layer, now they say we've gotta kick
it back,
We'll kick the *** of cancer and we'll kick the *** of AIDS,
And as for Global Warming, well, just kick *** wearing shades.

Kickin' ***, (KICKIN AY-***)
Kickin' *** is what we do,
Kickin' ***, (KICKIN AY-***)
Iron foot in the velvet shoe.
We don't care whose *** we kick, if we're ever all alone,
We just stand in front of the mirror, and try and kick our own.

Well, you can haul your *** or shut your *** or bust an *** is fine,
And there ain't no better place to put your *** than on the line,
But if you're like us, (YEE-HAA!) Thank you,
And you won't take second best,
You'll put your kickin' boots on, and kick like all the rest.
Thankyou.

(AWOOOOOOOO! SING THE SONG, VERN!)

[Thermodyne]

We seem to have arrived at the beginning of the end of the conflict chapter of this intervention. And I do think that intervention is how history will record this. As it turns out, there were quite a lot of Iraqis that hated Saddam but were much too fearful to show their displeasure, especially after the back stabbing they received 11 years ago. The remains of the regime have fled to Syria, which has a long history of providing sanctuary to despots and murders. Perhaps the UN will try to extradite them for trial, or perhaps freedom will be found to be contagious once again. It sure spread across the former Warsaw Pact nations in a hurry once it was discovered.

Now more than ever, Iraq needs the support of the world, as they begin to form a new government and restore services and order. They do not need the old usurpers returning to demand payment on deals that were made with Saddam, and they do not need to be rearmed. I personally think that the UN should be involved in so far as their abilities go. They should provide health services and humanitarian aid. Security can be best provided by the US and its coalition allies at this time, and the formation of a government should be left to the people of Iraq. They do not need over 100 nations trying to broker a government that will be favorable to their own personal interests.

It is also of note that this event has received more real time coverage than any conflict in history, and at the same time had the truth spun to the left or right of center in amounts that will probably damage the reputations of many news services irreparably. In America we used to limit the amount of news outlets that any one organization could hold. This was to limit the editorial influence of the wealthy powerful owners. I personally feel that it time to re impose these limits. Right now we have MS-NBC and CNN giving us partial truth from the left and FOX giving us partial truth from the right. I think we were all smart enough to realize what was going on, opinion was being presented as news. I don’t like this when it is against my position and I find it embarrassing when it supports my position. I found myself reading the raw releases, and then not posting at times because of the slewed positions that the large news services were taking.

In the end, it has worked more or less as advertised. The fat lady has yet to sing, but I think I hear her warming up. And I must say that for all of the regrettable damage this war has done to the everyday people of Iraq, it has been less than what the sanctions were doing. The sanctions were not hurting Saddam and his at all; he still lived the life of a king. He lacked for nothing and this must be laid at the feet of the Nations that were violating the embargo and the UN who was tasked with the enforcement. We need no longer name names; the records will address this as they become public. The Iraqi people seemed to have lacked for everything, the living conditions of these people were much worse than had been reported in the west. This will be the worst failure that the UN ever passed off on the world. Food for oil was a sham. And I bet the involved parties do everything they can to see that this program is never fully audited and examined.

The lesson here is that while this administration has not been totally forthcoming about this, they did have a workable plan. The WMD are still missing, but from the reaction of the Iraqi people, I don’t think it will matter. Personally I think we will find them as people began to try to make amends for their involvement with Saddam. But who knows. The second lesson is that the Major News Services don’t give a damn about hard news. Everything is just an opportunity to make Ratings numbers. They have been allowed to slant the news and then editorialize it to fit the political agendas of the owners. Everyone is asking “what next”? Will we loose Afghanistan? Will wee invade Syria? I say who cares. What ever happens I would just like to be able to get the facts read the editorial opinions and then come to my own conclusions. For this government’s next action, I think we need to reform the news industry. And I think that a return to limiting the ability of any one organization to reach markets is the way to do this. Then I think that the FCC should ban the collection of news Ratings numbers from broadcast news shows. Broadcast new was meant to be a service that the broadcasters provided to their viewers. It was part of the licensing requirements in the old days. Now news is one of the largest revenue producers the networks have, and they are compelled to slant the information in their endless pursuit of profits and Ratings. Of this I have had enough! Just tell me what happened, and who did what to whom. I will decide if I think it is good or bad.

From what we are seeing now, we all know where this thing goes next. All that is in doubt is how long it takes to spin down, and how many times it comes to blows as the Iraqis learn to set aside their internal differences. In closing, I hope that there are plenty of signs to go around. Because there were a lot of experts paraded across the news by large corporations that sell news. And right now I am thinking that I am glad that I don’t have to listen to the spin that they will have to put on their views. The combat part of the war was not a blood bath. And while civilian casualties are all regrettable, they have been very light up to this point. In the coming months, we will hear things that were good and we will here things that were bad. We will decide that things could have been done differently, and we will hear that some parts were not needed at all. This is as it should be, and I can only hope that both sides of the issue will learn from this. What ever happens, it gives me a good feeling when I see so many people who have nothing, acting so happy about it. We should all strive to never take our freedom for granted again. We sit here and argue about the rights and wrongs of this war as we ***** about the price of gas and how much the war will cost. And the whole time we forget that these people face summery death should they be overheard complaining about their situation or the way they were governed. I am ashamed that I completely overlooked the horror that these people lived day to day. We should all put ourselves in their position for a moment. Were we them, everyone here who posted a derogatory comment about President Bush Clinton Bush Sr. Regan Carter Ford or Nixon would be in jail. Our wives would be in jail, our sons would be in jail. Our daughters would be worse off than that. The majority of us would be killed for speaking this way during a war. Our parents would also be punished, and at least forced to relocate to an undeveloped area. Everyone we spoke to would have become a suspect with many arrested. After 30 plus years of this, I am amazed that these people are not still hunkered down in their homes. To still be here to day, they learned to survive, and in Iraq that seems to have been to never be noticed. I solute the silent majority of Iraq. And I hope that the future hold opportunity and happiness for them. I also hope that the US protects this freedom that we have given them as surly as it protects the freedoms that America enjoys. And the freedoms that American lives have purchased for countless millions in the past.

PS:

I was going to let this pass, but what the hell. It has been fashionable and popular to trash the reputation of the United States in the past few months. Just as it was fun to razz the French for their defense of Saddam. And I hope that you have all enjoyed the debates and sparring as much as I have. A good disagreement opens the mind to outside views and ideas. But we should all take a moment and reflect on the fact that the freedom we enjoyed while doing this was paid for with the blood of America and its allies. And we do it on a medium that was developed to ensure that the Soviets could not decapitate America in a first strike. I doubt that a Nazify’d Europe would be so chatty and free to speak their mind today, and I seriously doubt that the Soviets would have ever allowed a basically free uncensored uncontrolled medium such as the internet to fall into common use by it citizens. This was an American expression of freedom. The most basic freedom, the ability to say what is on ones mind be it right or wrong.

To those who were offended by my statements, I offer no apologies. If you feel that you are owed one, well then email me, I’ll hear you out. But the reason that people don’t discuss politics and religion in mixed company is because of the hard feelings that can occur. I look forward to the next hot off topic thread that consumes this forum. This one is about over I think, with all that has happened up to now, I doubt there is much left that will seem worth much debate in at this late date.

[ April 09, 2003, 18:17: Message edited by: Thermodyne ]

[Unknown_Enemy]

from www.stratfor.com

1919 GMT - The only militants thus far to seize on the opportunity presented by the war in Iraq have been those in Afghanistan. Their campaign apparently began when U.S. President George W. Bush issued an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein to step down within 48 hours or face war. Guerilla forces in Afghanistan have attacked U.S. and coalition forces across the country, and Afghan President Hamid Karzai has virtually become a prisoner in his palace in Kabul.

The most daring attacks have come in Zabul, Paktika, Paktia and Hilmad -- where Afghan troops reportedly surrendered to Taliban forces. The Afghan troops' weapons were confiscated, and they were freed with a warning not to cooperate with coalition troops.

Reports emerging from Kabul indicate that the Taliban and Hizb e-Islami forces have recaptured much of the eastern and southeastern Afghanistan. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar reportedly is leading the resistance, although the appointed provisional governors remain nominally in charge of the areas. The situation likely will deteriorate further in the coming weeks.

[General Woundwort]

Originally posted by Unknown_Enemy:
from www.stratfor.com

Reports emerging from Kabul indicate that the Taliban and Hizb e-Islami forces have recaptured much of the eastern and southeastern Afghanistan. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar reportedly is leading the resistance, although the appointed provisional governors remain nominally in charge of the areas. The situation likely will deteriorate further in the coming weeks.

Bear in mind a couple of things...

1) The southeast portion of Afghanistan has always been the home of the pro-Taliban tribes.

2) "Control" or "re-capture" is a pretty vague notion in a country as atomized (i.e. lots of isolated pockets of population) as Afghanistan is.

3) The best public source of MILINT and RUMINT that I know of, StrategyPage.com, actually has the *Coalition* as being on the offensive in the south lately...

Strategy Page's Afghanistan Report

[ April 10, 2003, 14:17: Message edited by: General Woundwort ]