LA Aran Vanilla HELP BUG IN GAME

[Squirrelloid]

Carpetbagger, an S2 magedueling an S3 has a ~1/3 chance of winning. And on a tie they both die.

If S3 rolls 1, S2 needs to roll 2 for mutual suicide or a 3+ to win.
S3 rolls 2, S2: 3/4+
S3 rolls 3, S2: 4/5+
S3 rolls 4, S2: 5/6
S3 rolls 5, S2: 6/-

So, there's a 1/6 of each of those S3 rolls, the S2 requirements to win happen with P: 4/6, 3/6, 2/6, 1/6 respectively, x1/6 for the odds of the necessary S3 roll, is a total probability of the S2 winning = 10/36, or a little less than 1/3.

P of mutually assured destruction is a little less than 1/6 (5/36 to be exact).

So that means the S3 has a 15/36 chance of dying against an S2 in a mage duel. That's getting pretty close to 50%!

Anyway, the replay is wrong, the battle report is exactly right. There's no point whining about it and it isn't a reason to rollback a game.

Edit: S1 vs. S3 is a 6/36 chance of the S1 winning, and a 4/36 chance of mutually assured destruction, which is a 10/36 chance of the S3 dying, or slightly less than 1/3.

The odds of an S3 surviving 14 S1 mage duels is incredibly low. (26/36)^14 ~= 1%. The expected number of mage duels by S1s to kill an S3 is 4.