Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[Hoplosternum]

Agree with Gandalf.

But as a further point re Fortune tellers. They won't save you from misfortune issues usually and I would largely discount them from your luck/misfortune calculation. This is because one of the main problems with misfortune is the regular barbarian and unrest events that crop up causing income and province losses. Even if you have enough Fortune Tellers to stop bad luck they only affect the province they are in. And as they are usually mages you want them concentrated at your research centres rather than spread out stopping bad events happening. So they don't stop the 'cost of misfortune' much.

They mainly help the Capital. There are some very serious bad events that can all but kill you (especially in multiplayer) if they hit your capital very early. The Vampire Count, Bogus or some other serious attack on your Capital. The big population killers striking your capital (sometimes multiple times). And the loss of your capital's Lab very early on. Any of these can be fatal or at least lead to you falling back too far to recover.

The problem with fortune tellers here is that when these events really hurt is in the first couple of turns or at least the first half year of the game. And at that stage you are unlikley to have enough Fortune Tellers even in your capital to make sure these can't happen. By year two your fortune tellers may have made your capital safe from bad events. But by then none are fatal by themselves.